Leicester to win at 1.62 with Betfair SB / Unibet - 1 unit (min 1.57)

Legia

  • Legia have ridden their luck in Europe this season; in qualification for the Europa League, they were fortunate to get past Slavia Prague (AGG4-3) they generated just 0.93 across the two legs and scored 4 times while conceding 2.75xGA.
  • In their opening group game, they beat a struggling Spartak Moscow but again were 2nd best in chance creation. Spartak had 22 attempts on goal that totalled 1.81xG but failed to score. Legia created one clear cut goal-scoring chance in the 91st minute and converted it
  • Legia have not played a team from a top 5 league since their 2016 UCL group phase. From those games, they conceded 24 goals in 6 group games.
  • Legia's team news isn't ideal either; starting GK Artur Boruc is set to miss out, as is Brazilian winger Luquinhas.
  • Domestically Legia are struggling; they sit 15th currently, 9 points adrift of league leaders Lech Poznan. Legia do have two games in hand but 4 losses from 7 games isn't a good look
  • On Saturday, they were beaten 2-3 at home by Raków Częstochowa with 1.17 xG generated and 1.84xGA conceded
  • Their xG total for the season is the 2nd worst in the league at 1.11 per 90, this is a considerable drop on last seasons 1.88 per 90
  • All three wins in the Ekstraklasa have come against teams in the bottom half of the table. Warta Poznań (16th), Wisła Płock (12th), and Górnik Łęczna (18th)
  • Possible XI: Miszta; Jedrzejczyk, Wieteska, Nawrocki, Mladenovic; Josue, Slisz, Martins; Lopes, Muci; Emreli

Leicester

  • Leicester will look to pick up maximum points after letting their lead against Napoli slip in the first group game.
  • Considering the XI they fielded for that game we can expect Leicester to put out a relatively strong XI.
  • Expected XI: Schmeichel; Castagne, Evans, Vestergaard, Bertrand; Soumare, Tielemans; Perez, Maddison, Barnes; Daka
  • Legia rank 126th in the Euro Club Index, the last time Leicester faced a similar strength opponent, was when they took on AEK Athens and Zorya in the previous season's UEL group phase.
  • Leicester won 3 of the 4 games, the exception being a 0-1 loss to Zorya; at that stage, qualification was pretty much secured anyway (10 points from the first 4 matches), and they rotated their XI heavily.
  • Leicester have performed below expectations so far this season, so I see this game as one Rodger will want to win. His side have won just 2 of 7 matches, excluding the Carabao cup win over Millwall.

Final word: This is a very winnable game for the Premier League club, expect a strong XI and a comfortable win