Liverpool have started to look far less solid at the back in recent months and their chance creation hasn’t been as impressive as it was in recent times.
Since project restart, Liverpool dropped points to Everton, Man City, Burnley, and lost to Arsenal twice (league + community shield)
Even prior to the lockdown we saw some concerning results, the losses to Atletico, the two goals conceded against West Ham, and the 3-0 loss to Watford
The Reds have conceded in 7 of their last 8 competitive games. The one clean sheet came against Aston Villa
Is there a chance the team’s motivation is starting to wane with all the success they have had in the last two seasons? Possibly
One thing is for certain, Liverpool have been over performing these last three seasons in front of goal. If we go off the xG numbers on Understat we can see that over the past 3 seasons Liverpool have scored around 26 goals more than their expected number. Seeing a regression to the mean this season would not surprise me.
Over the last two seasons, they have been over performing at the back too. They have conceded 13 fewer goals than expected. Again a regression wouldn’t be completely unexpected, also that number is that significant with a GK like Alisson between the sticks
Leeds along with Brentford were the best attacking teams in the league. Leeds averaged 1.67 goals per game with 1.81xG. Had they a better starting CF than Bamford they probably would have scored a lot more.
At the back, they were the standout performers in the league allowing just 35.91xGA and 35 goals against. Brentford who were next best-allowed 43.42xGA and 42 goals against
Leeds have strengthened their squad too. Rodrigo from Valencia is expected to lead the line, Rodrigo should be a massive upgrade on Patrick Bamford. Bamford last season undershot his total xG scoring just 16 times from a 24.28xG.
Elsewhere they have brought in Koch from Freiburg at CB and retained most of the Championship-winning side.
Leeds had one test last season against EPL level opponents. That came in the FA Cup away to Arsenal. They played well and only narrowly lost 1-0. Leeds showed they were a match for Arsenal that day and showed no fear getting off 17 attempts on goal and controlling the possession.
Over 0.5 Leeds goals at 1.75 with Pinnacle - 2 units (BTTS also fine above 1.9)
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