Lyon

  • have been very impressive defensively under Rudi Garcia and they'll need another almost perfect performance to have any chance of progressing to the semi-finals against the tournament favourites
  • In their two legs with Juve they conceded almost no big chances across the 180 mins, Juve scored from the penalty spot and from a Ronaldo screamer (0.03 xG chance)
  • Prior to that 2nd leg with Juve, they had a serious test against PSG in the Coupe de Ligue final and reduced the Parisiens to just 0.63 xG and 0 goals (Lyon allowed one shot inside their box in that match)
  • Simply put, Lyon tend not to concede big chances so Man City could become frustrated if an early goal doesn't come there way
  • Under Garcia Lyon have had some success flooding the centre of the pitch and breaking up opposition attacks. If they have any kind of success breaking up City's attacking transitions they can be a massive threat on the counter. That, however, is easier said than done.
  • For those of you that remember Lyon's famous 2-1 win in the Etihad last year, both their goals came from winning back position in the middle of the park and countering City
  • Another thing Lyon have in their favour is pace and acceleration. Depay, Dembélé, Aouar and Cornet are all expected to start and are all lightning quick on the counter.
  • Depay and Aouar will be key tonight. When on the field this season Lyon have averaged 1.76 and 1.69 goals per 90 respectively (Champions League matches only)

Man City

  • Man City's game plan will be predictable here, they will play a 4-3-3 and control 65-70% of possession as they look to break down Lyon's mid/low block
  • Defensively, Man City are the weakest they have been since Pep's first season. They are allowing fewer attempts on their goal but the quality of the chances they do concede a higher than previous seasons.
  • Man City allow 0.89xGA per 90 across all PL/UCL games and 0.87 goals per 90
  • Pep's Man City have NEVER kept a clean sheet in a knockout tie ( over two legs) This scenario is slightly different as it's one leg in a neutral venue but it's rare his team keep clean sheets in these games. Basel (1st leg 2018) and Schalke (2nd leg 2019) the only matches with clean sheets.
  • From the 36 matches Pep has taken charge of in the UCL, City have conceded on average of 1.27 per match
  • City have conceded at least once in their last 6 UCL matches with teams from a Top 5 league
  • Schalke (7-0) and Gladbach (4-0) are the only teams from a Top 5 league that haven't scored against City in a UCL match.
  • City are expected to line-up with Laporte and Fernandinho at CB. One important point on City's xGA this season is that City produce their worst team xGA when Fernandinho plays, maybe he's finally starting to show his age (35). The Brazilian has played 6 times at CB this season (UCL) and City have failed to keep a clean sheet in 4.
  • City also produce their worst goals against average when Gündoğan is on the pitch (expected to start tonight) 1.04 goals conceded per 90 when on the pitch.
Lyon Over 0.5 Goals / Lyon to score @ 1.9 with Pinnacle - 2  units

You can bet BTTS but I don't see much value in it, Lyon can be very tough to break down and it's not worth the extra risk considering the prices available are almost identical to Lyon's team toal