Chelsea Over 0.5 team goals @ 1.68 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min odds 1.62)

NB: As discussed yesterday, we have exited out Outright play on Man City (Backed at 3.25 before the quarter-finals)

Man City

  • These sides have met twice under their current managers and City have conceded on both occasions, in the FA Cup they allowed 1.01xGA and conceded once, in their last EPL meeting Chelsea scored twice while getting off 13 attempts totalling 1.1xG
  • From their UCL KO games this term City have allowed on average 0.83xGA per 90.
  • From 19 UCL KO matches with Man City, Pep's side have conceded at least once in 73.7%
  • The exceptions being both legs with a struggling Gladbach this season, the 2nd leg with PSG, Schalke in 2019, and Basel in 2018
  • When going head to head with Thomas Tuchel, Pep's sides have conceded at least once in 3 of their last 4 meetings
  • With Chelsea being one of the Top 10 club in world football, let's examine how City have held up against Europe's elite this season
  • In both meetings with Liverpool (Ranked 5th ECI) this season they conceded, Liverpool were also weakened in both games, Liverpool averaged 1.45xG in both games
  • In their meetings with Man Utd (Ranked 9th ECI) they conceded once with an average xGA of 1.41
  • vs Chelsea they conceded in all three meetings this season giving up an xGA average of 1.00
  • Lastly, the UCL is the holy grail for Man City and Pep, I feel there's a LOT more pressure on City than Chelsea which makes them more vulnerable in my opinion. Also Chelsea will press them high and could have success turning the ball over if City aren't on their A game
  • Expected XI: Ederson; Walker, Dias, Stones, Zinchenko; Fernandinho, Gundogan, Silva; Mahrez, De Bruyne, Foden

Chelsea

  • Chelsea don't have much to lose here, no one expected them to make it this far and no one expected Tuchel to have such a quick impact.
  • Chelsea have scored in all their UCL games under Tuchel bar the Porto 2nd leg (they were leading the tie)
  • Although they haven't been that prolific they have been quite consistent with their chance creation averaging 1.66xG per 90 under Tuchel
  • Most recently against "Top" sides they've done well despite results not always going their way
  • vs Leicester they generated 2.9, and 1.52 in the FA Cup, vs Arsenal 2.27, vs City 1.1, vs Real Madrid 3.45 and 1.45
  • As we know Timo Werner's 0.27 goals per 90 with 0.47xGA per 90 across all competitions is holding Chelsea back a little, as is usually the case we should start to see a regression to the mean. All will be forgiven if he can score tonight
  • Werner still has a positive impact on this attack (1.75 team goals per 90 with him) Only Kai Havertz has had a more positive impact (Midfielders/Attackers with 2000+ mins) He also has the most goal creating actions in the squad, only Mount and Pulisic come close to his output.
  • Chelsea should be able to create some decent chances in this game with balls over the top exploiting City's high line, they can also have success turning the ball over with their high press. Unless City are perfect today the Blues will have chances to score in this game
  • Expected XI: Mendy; Silva, Rudiger, Christensen; Azpilicueta, Jorginho, Kante, Chilwell; Mount, Pulisic; Werner

Final word: This could end in a 0-0 stalemate but with all the pressure on Man City I don't anticipate a game where they manage to completely shut out Chelsea.