Both teams to score: Yes at 1.9 Bet365- 2 units (min 1.83)

Man Utd

  • Utd should look stronger here than at the weekend with Cavani and Pogba likely returning
  • Possible XI: De Gea; Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Shaw; Fred, McTominay; Pogba, Fernandes, Rashford; Cavani
  • Utd have had some mediocre xG numbers in the UEL this season but if they put out their best XI they should offer a far bigger threat.
  • Cavani in particular has had a very positive impact on Utd's attack, across all comps with him on the pitch Utd are scoring 2.09 goals per 90 with 1.76xG per 90. No player with +1500 mins has a better average. Rashford and Fernandes have both been sensational in Europe this season too. Both have 9 goal contributions this season
  • Only in one European home game did Utd struggle to create, that came in the 0-0 with Real Sociedad (meaningless 2nd leg, they led 4-0)
  • Defensively Utd haven't been that watertight in Europe, The only team that travelled here (UCL & UEL) and failed to generate an xG higher than 1.00 was RB Leipzig
  • Domestically Man Utd do have a healthy number of clean sheets in 2021 but overall the teams they've only truly nullified were West Ham, Southampton, and Leeds at the weekend.

Roma

  • Roma will be lining up without the suspended Mancini from their back 3. He's been Fonseca's most used player this season and will be sorely missed
  • Chris Smalling who played his first match in about 6 weeks last weekend didn't look great as Roma got beaten 3-2 by Cagliari.
  • Roma expected XI: Lopez; Cristante, Smalling, Ibanez; Karsdorp, Diawara, Veretout, Spinazzola; Pellegrini, Mkhitaryan; Dzeko
  • Bryan Cristante at CB offers Roma a lot going forward, his an excellent ball playing CB and with him Roma average 1.94xG, however defensively he's far from the strongest
  • I think it goes without saying that a Roma clean sheet is highly unlikely here, so I'll focus on why I think they'll score
  • Roma are excellent at creating from open play, currently they rank 4th best in Italy for chances from open play (Better than Milan, Napoli, Sassuolo, Lazio)
  • Only Arsenal have scored more goals than Roma (26) in the campaign so far, considering Mkhitaryan, Pellegrini and Dzeko have played limited mins in the competition this is quite positive
  • With the exception of Pedro Roma have all their attacking weapons available
  • Fonseca has taken charge of 21 UEL games with Roma with his side only failing to score twice. Once against CSKA Sofia (2.04xG) and Sevilla last season (1.19xG)

Final word: I don't anticipate a negative approach from Fonseca, he's about to get fired and with Mancini missing it would be a tall order to keep a clean sheet. Expect both teams to have success in the final third