PSG Over 1.5 team goals at 2.09 with Pinnacle (minimum 1.91) 2 units

**Current odds 1.96

Man Utd

  • Man Utd are coming off a morale-boosting 3-2 win over Southampton but here they will face a sterner test against a PSG side looking for 3 points
  • As it stands a draw would suit Man Utd, but PSG need a win to get back into contention (we have to assume RB Leipzig beat Başakşehir)
  • The two have met three times since OGS took charge of Utd, let's examine those matches first.
  • In their last match Utd won 2-1 and only gave up 1.08xG and 12 attempts which was very encouraging, however, PSG were not at their strongest with both Verratti and Marquinhos not featuring.
  • When the two met in the 18/19 KO rounds, PSG scored 3 over the two legs but were without Neymar so that also would have negatively affected their output again. We'll discuss this in more detail below
  • Man Utd could be without De Gea in goal, his back-up as we know is reliable but not having your regular GK in goal can sometimes negatively affect communication with the backline and cause problems.
  • Tuanzebe who had one the best games of his career in the 2-1 win over PSG won't be available, neither McTominay nor Shaw who both played in that win.
  • The could line up something like this: Henderson; Wan-Bissaka, Lindelof, Maguire, Telles; Fred, Matic, Van de Beek; Fernandes; Rashford, Cavani.

PSG

  • As discussed previously, PSG relies heavily on Verratti, and when he plays, PSG scores more. Looking at last season's number, we can see PSG scoring 2.95 goals per 90 with the Italian on the pitch. Only Mbappe has had a more positive impact on PSG's team goals.
  • Here PSG will have Mbappe, Neymar and Verratti taking the field. If we look at last season's UCL numbers (500 mins+), we can see that these three players, along with Juan Bernat influence PSG goals and xG per 90 more than any other player. It's fair to say that this should be the game where they have more success against Utd
  • PSG's start to the season has been worrying, and motivation in Ligue 1 seems to be becoming a bigger and bigger problem. However, this is a must-win game, and I think they will be motivated more than their recent outings.
  • Even with the poor results and squad issues, PSG's goals per game average (2.11) isn't that bad when we consider Tuchel has had to do without Neymar and Verratti for a good chunk of the season (Icardi is still out)

Final word: The whole world knows what Man Utd's game plan will be here, OGS has had success in these sports before, but with key men in place for PSG I think they will have more success than their previous meetings.