Both of these teams have been scoring for fun lately but Milan are at a serious disadvantage for this game with players out injured or suspended.
- Milan will be without their captain and best CB Romagnoli, Their starting LB Theo Hernandez, and their best CM Bennacer. This also means that their bench will be very skinny, especially in defensive positions. Kjaer was suffering from muscle fatigue but it appears he has to play through his problems today.
- Let's take a closer look at those players that are missing. Romagnoli has started 35 league matches this season and is a rock at the center of defence. Of all Milan's CB's, Milan have their lowest team xGA when he's on the pitch (players +1000 mins)
- Theo Hernandez' contribution comes more at the other end of the pitch, with him on the pitch, Milan average 1.74 goals per 90. His replacement Laxalt has played just 82 mins this season and has been completely out of favour with Pioli
- Onto Bennacer, The Algerian is one of the finest CM's in Europe and is likely destined for an even bigger club this summer or next. With Bennacer starting Milan enjoy their best xG differential (+0.46 per 90) No players (2000 mins +) has a bigger influence on Milan's success. FYI Theo comes in 2nd place for Milan's xG differential success, with Romagnoli 5th.
- Atalanta in contrast will have an almost full strength squad for this game and should be at a significant advantage, particularly in the 2nd half considering we're still using 5 substitutes
- Despite disappointing a bit in their last two matches (just two goals scored) Atalanta are still putting up decent attacking numbers with an average of 2.21xG in those games and 19.5 shots per game. Considering Milan absentees I'll be very surprised if they don't replicate or exceed these numbers
- Milan have been excellent since the restart but they haven't exactly been rock solid at the back. Since beating a depleted Lazio side they have picked up 13 points from a possible 15 but they have conceded in every game giving up on average 1.4 goals per game
I won't bother rambling on here, we know what Atalanta are about and we know just how significant Milan's injuries/suspensions are. Expect Atalanta to have the upper hand
Atalanta to win at 2.5 with Betfair - 1.5 units
Atalanta Over 1.5 team goals at 1.73 with Pinnacle - 2 units
*Bets added to Telegram on July 22nd