Under 4 goals in the match and Over 1 Venezia cards (Bet Builder on Bet365) at 2.25 - 1 unit
Over 2 Venezia cards at 1.83 with Bet365 (Bet Builder) - 1 unit

*If you don't have access to Bet Builders just back the Under 3.5 at 1.7 which is widely available

Milan

  • Milan look likely to rotate here with Kjaer and Calabria unavailable for the backline. Franck Kessie will also be on the sidelines with Ibra and Giroud
  • Expected XI: Maignan, Kalulu, Tomori, Romagnoli, Theo, Tonali, Bennacer, Saelemaekers, Diaz, Leao, Rebic
  • Milan struggled in the chance creation department against Juve; the goal came from a free header off a corner. Something very uncharacteristic for Juve. (3 attempts on target, in total 0.69xG)
  • Milan do tend to struggle without a recognised CF target man, Giroud was brought in to share the workload with Ibra, but both are now injured.
  • Although we've only seen a total of 210 combined mins for Ibra and Giroud, the teams overall goals per 90 average with them is huge (3.33 with Ibra, 2.5 with Giroud) with them rather than without. (Tiny sample size, of course, but we point back to last season, too, when they struggled with Leao and Rebic playing CF.)
  • Milan doesn't have a great record when hosting teams in the bottom 6 with 5 wins, 4 draws, and 1 loss. From those games, we've only seen on average 2.2 goals per game
  • Even when we filter to just bottom half teams, we see a similar trend. From their last 10 with bottom-half teams, they have won just 5 with 13 scored and 11 conceded.
  • It may surprise you to know that no team in Serie A has seen Under 3.5 goals more than Milan (16 of last 20)
  • Defensively Milan should be more than capable of shutting Venezia out; so far this season, they have allowed just 0.5 goals against with 0.65xGA; this is impressive considering they've already taken on Juventus and Lazio.

Venezia

  • Venezia had a devastating loss at the weekend against Spezia, the match was 1-1 in the 94th minute, and Spezia hit a long-range effort that found the net. Overall they defended well, allowing just 0.58xGA and four attempts on target
  • Like the Napoli game at the start of the season, we should see a shift in tactics here. Don't be surprised to see a more defensive set-up with persistent fouling and time-wasting. The longer Venezia keep this 0-0, the better.
  • Surprisingly, Venezia rank 7th best in the league for restricting chances from open play (similar numbers to Roma and Inter)
  • We'll hope Venezia can keep 11 men on the pitch and not give away cheap penalties; if that happens, we will be in a great position to cash the bet.
  • Venezia are seeing 16 fouls per 90 with 4.75 yellow cards.

Final word: Venezia will be happy to take anything from this game so we should expect very negative tactics that look to frustrate Milan. Considering the absentees' in attack for the hosts, this goal line is too high.