Mali to win at 2.1 with Betsafe/Betsson/10bet/Coolbet/1xBet - 2 units (min odds 1.78)

Namibia

  • Namibia were well beaten in Friday's match in Bamako. Although Mali did only win 1-0 the underlying stats show a different story
  • Mali controlled the game with 67% possession, generated 1.96xG and got off an impressive 19 attempts on goal. Mali also didn't let Namibia breathe, with a PPDA (passes allowed per defensive action) score 3.85 we can see just how effective their pressing was
  • Namibia relied heavily on long balls over the top which for the most part didn't massively trouble Mali
  • Namibia's squad consists entirely of local Namibian players and few that ply their trade in South Africa. Their highest profile player (Ryan Nyambe of Blackburn) isn't in the squad
  • I can't be 100% sure of Namibia's preparation for this game but they faced a massive headache travelling to Bamako for Friday's game. It included over 8 hours of flight time with two refueling stops. Considering they have to repeat the trip back to Windhoek the travel time could take it's toll on the squad
  • Over the last 6 years, Namibia's highest profile wins in AFCON qualification have come over Mozambique (Ranked #117 in the world)
  • Namibia are unbeaten in their last 4 of their last 5 at home but the level of opponent isn't close to Mali. Chad (2-0 win) are the 6th worst side in Africa, Madagascar (2-0) rank 96th while Eritrea are the worst team in Africa and one of the worst in World Football. The last time they faced a test at home was when Ivory Coast travelled here and beat then 4-1

Mali

  • Mali are currently the 9th best team in Africa with a squad worth close to € 160 Million (x80 more valuable than Namibia)
  • Their squad is young and full of class already, Doucouré (Everton) Haidara (RB Leipzig) Bissouma (Brighton) Djenepo (Southampton) Samassékou (Hoffenheim) Koita (RB Salzburg) are just a few of the big names Mali has available to them
  • Since being appointed caretaker manager in 2017, Mohamed Magassouba has done a wonderful job. He's taken charge of 19 games and lost just one competitive match which came against South Africa
  • If we filter just his AFCON qualification matches he has won 5 of 8 with 13 goals scored and 3 conceded
  • They only dropped points to Burundi (both draws) and Guinea
  • Over their two matches with Burundi, they were the better side generating 2.09-0.49xG over the two matches. Unfortunately I don't have data on that 2-2 with Guinea
  • Mali have won all three of their matches over the last calendar year and all three were deserved (Ghana, Chad, and Namibia) They averaged 2 goals per game, kept a clean sheet in all and only allowed on average 0.33xGA.

Final word: This is a very beatable opponent and Mali appear to be going from strength to strength. If they can score they should take all three points