PSG -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.11 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units

Nantes

  • Nantes are considerably weaker coming into this match with 3 automatic starters missing including their defensive leader Nicolas Pallois
  • Girotto, Corchia, Augustin, da Silva, Chirivella, Coulibaly, and Limbombe will also miss out
  • None more important than their two starting CB's Girotto and Pallois, let's investigate their probable replacements Castelletto and Abeid
  • Abeid is a CM by trade so he will be playing out of position, from what I can see he has only ever played a few mins at CB for Nantes, never a full match
  • Cameroonian Castelletto should partner him, he's played two full matches this season and Nantes gave up on average 1.66xGA in those games (vs Nice and Brest)
  • Although it's early days (7 games) Nantes defensive numbers are the worst they've been for over 5 years. They are giving opponents on average 1.43 goals per 90 and an even higher xGA of 1.6
  • This should be a concern too as they're yet to face any of the top attacking sides in France (PSG, Lille, Rennes and Lyon)
  • Considering the problems in defence for Gourcuff I think PSG can take advantage

PSG

  • PSG have bounced back from the Man Utd defeat despite still not being able to field their best XI
  • They beat Dijon 4-0 (xG3.87-1.49) and then İstanbul Başakşehir 2-0 (xG 2.33-0.8)
  • Neymar is a new absentee this week (expected back after the international break) but PSG will still be able to call upon on a front 3 of Mbappe-Kean-Sarabia
  • Although they haven't played much (4 appearances each) both Moise Kean and Rafinha have hit the ground running. Mitchel Bakker at LB has also been playing very well in Bernat's absence. Could be a breakout year for him. Bottom line here is I'm not worried about the XI Tuchel's fields here (Expected: Keylor - Dagba, Diallo, Kimpembe, Bakker - Herrera, Gueye, Rafinha - Sarabia, Kean, Mbappé)
  • The last time PSG travelled here it was without Neymar too and they managed to put up a massive 3.66xG before switching off late on and letting Nantes back into the game, I hope we don't get a repeat  (2-1 PSG)
  • PSG have won 8 of their last 10 matches against teams in the bottom 6 with 28 scored and 8 conceded
  • PSG have covered their last five Ligue 1 games winning by 2 or more goals (4-0 Dijon, 4-0 Nimes, 6-1 Angers, 2-0 Reims, and 3-0 Nice) Even in their game with Metz (No Neymar or Mbappe) they put up 2.14 xG and should have covered