Over 2.5 Goals at 1.7 with Pinnacle (min 1.62) - 2 units

Napoli

  • Napoli should remain relatively unchanged for this game; the one expected change will be Bakayoko for Demme at CM. With Bakayoko, Napoli offers a lot more offensively over Demme. With the Frenchman on the pitch, they average 1.79xG compared to 1.27 with the German.
  • Napoli have all their attacking threats available for this game (Mertens, Osimhen, Lozano, Politano, Zieliński, and Insigne)
  • Alex Meret will continue in goal; the young Italians' GK'ing numbers are a lot worse than Ospina, so they should be worse in defence. Meret's Goals against per 90, save %, and post-shot xG is worse.
  • Napoli didn't look great the last time these two met (2-0 loss), however with injuries and covid cases, Napoli had to make do with Andrea Petagna at CF for the entire match (Mertens, Insigne, and Osimhen didn't play)
  • I mentioned at the weekend how Napoli games against top 6 tend to be low scoring (average 2.5 per game in last 10); however, with the implications of this game, I see it opening up once one team scores.

Lazio

  • Lazio ran out 5-3 winners over Benevento at the weekend, conceding 2.26xGA and 16 attempts on goal isn't a good look, in my opinion.
  • With a 20% chance of UCL, they have to roll the dice here and go all out for the win.
  • Unlike Napoli, Lazio's games against the top 6 have been rather high scoring with an average of 3.4 per game.
  • Most recently, we saw them lose 3-1 to Juve, lose 3-1 to Inter, beat Atalanta 3-1, beat Roma 3-0, and lose 3-2 to Milan
  • Lazio are expected to adjust their back three for this game as Marusic is expected to be deployed on the left. This should mean Patric returning to the backline.
  • With Patric, Lazio are allowing on average 1.69 goals a game, the worst average of any player over 1000 mins; Wesley Hoedt (862 mins), their other backup CB is even worse with 1.88 goals against per 90
  • Worth noting that at this stage of the season last year, we saw Lazio fall to pieces due to shallow squad depth. I'm not saying that happens here, but worth remembering.
  • Can we expect Lazio to add to the goal line? I see no reason why not. They've scored in every single game this season when Immobile has played 65+ mins
  • Lazio are also generating 1.77xG per 90 and are currently a top tier attack.
  • The visitors will also have all their main goal contributors present from the start assuming my team news is accurate (Immobile, Sergej, Correa, Alberto)

Final word: The best-case scenario here would be Lazio scoring first (scored 1st in 15 of their last 20) which should mean a bit of desperation creeps into Napoli's play.