Under 3.5 Total Goals at 1.86 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units

Liverpool

  • The big news here is that Liverpool have a crisis at CB and as a result Rhys Williams will likely partner up with Joe Gomez
  • Rhys Williams has played over 240 mins for Liverpool this season (2 starts in the league cup and 66 in the UCL midweek)
  • From those mins we can see Liverpool have given up on average 0.74 goals per 90. Although he's not a household name I don't think we should overreact, Liverpool should still keep things quite tight
  • Since VVD injury all of Liverpool's games have all had Under 2.5 goals with an average total xG of 3.04. Take away the penalties in the Sheff Utd and FCM games and that average xG drops to 2.53
  • Are Liverpool playing more cautiously because of the frailties at the back? I believe so
  • We also have to consider a number of players who played almost the full game will be playing here so intensity probably won't be at its highest (Robertson, TAA, Gomez, Henderson, Jota)

West Ham

  • West Ham have been performing above expectations so far this season. The most consistent part of their season has been their defence, they currently rank 5th for xGA in the league
  • In terms of chances allowed, they're performing better than Leicester, Chelsea, Arsenal, Man City, Spurs, and even Man City
  • Last time out they reduced Man City to 1 goal and 0.75xG... one of their worst ever totals under Guardiola
  • Going forward West Ham are severely handicapped with Michail Antonio missing out through injury. The powerful CF probably would have relished coming up against a 19 year old inexperienced CB
  • Of players with 300+ mins this season he's contributed most to West Ham's xG per 90. Last season it was the same, West ham created a higher number of chances with him in the team
  • Sébastien Haller who hasn't played 90 mins in an EPL since March is due to lead the line as Moyes stick with the 5-4-1
  • Interestingly, West Ham are only giving up 0.94xGA per 9o when in the 5-4-1 so I doubt Moyes mixes things up here
  • Expect West Ham to sit very deep and flood the centre of the pitch forcing liverpool to play balls in from wide.