Napoli -1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.76 with Pinnacle (1.65 min) 2 units

Napoli

  • Napoli were hugely impressive yesterday beating Cagliari 4-1 while generating 4.64xG and getting off 29 attempts on goal. The fact they did this with key personnel missing is even more impressive
  • We can expect an almost identical XI for this match as it seems Mertens, Koulibaly, and Osimhen still need time to recover
  • Expected XI: Ospina, Lorenzo, Manolas, Maksimovic, Rui, Ruiz, Bakayoko, Lozano, Petagna, Insigne, and Zielinksi.
  • Napoli have hosted just one team in the relegation zone this season and that was Genoa who they beat 6-0 at the start of the season
  • Historically Napoli have been very strong at home to newly promoted teams winning 9 of their last 10 with 30 goals scored at 6 conceded
  • Defensively Napoli have been the best team in Serie A this season with just 13 goals against and an xGA of 12.4
  • Koulibaly is out here, but unlike previous season Napoli look fine at the back with Manolas, Maksimovic and Rrahmani all proving more than capable.

Spezia

  • Obviously there is a stark difference in quality between these teams but Spezia's current squad situation was the driving force behind this bet.
  • They will be without 12 players from their first team squad through suspension and injury.
  • Estevez (starting CM) Chabot (Starting CB) Ricci (starting CM) are just a few of the key players missing
  • Spezia have travelled to two other Top 6 teams this season and were beaten comfortably, Inter 2-1 and Milan 3-0
  • Looking at all their road games this season they have given up 1.86 goals per 90 mins
  • Although the have scored 1.57 per in their away games the underlying xG indicates they're overperforming with just 1.16xG generated per 90
  • In those two games against the Milan clubs, Spezia really struggled to create anything, across the 180 mins they created just one decent chances which they converted (late goal vs Inter)
  • Spezia tend to press really high in an attempt to win turnovers and create chances, I feel if they try this here Napoli will have no problems cutting through them. Currently Napoli are the 2nd best team in the league (after Juventus) at resisting the press

Final word: I expect Napoli to build on their result this weekend with another dominant display.