Over the last 18 months we have beat the 'Top 20 finish' market in Golf in a big way but there is a problem, a problem that all winning bettors must face, RESTRICTIONS
Every winning bettor knows how this works and for some following our Top 20 service with these "Soft bookmakers" has become unsustainable.
For that reason, we want to give access to our ratings to a select few (capped at 15-20 players, to begin with) so they can find value in places were restrictions don't exist like on the exchanges, Pinnacle/Asian books, or even regional bookmakers that aren't on our radar.
NB: If you are unrestricted and have access to the likes of Betfair, Paddy Power, Bet365, Unibet then I highly recommend you take advantage of the Top 20 service we run that beats the market consistently, If you are restricted read on.
Ian was previously an odds compiler for 9 with various firms in the UK and Ireland. Over the last 5 years however, Ian has been perfecting his core strategies to beat the Golf markets.
The first product he released was the Top 20 model which consistently beat the books and has returned a very healthy +25% ROI
With our ratings sheets you will be able to see the implied edge our model produces for all markets.
- This can assists in laying and backing on the exchanges, backing on the sharp books in Asia or with Pinnacle
- You can utilise them with spread betting if that's your thing
- These can even assists you if you play fantasy stuff like draftkings too
Here's an example below
Projections will also be sent throughout the week to help us identify possible bets in-play as well
Laying on the exchange and finding value
Here's an example from last week, Colin Morikawa was trading on the Betfair Exchange at 18.5 so this would be an example of a selection we would automatically 'lay' on the exchange, the value was too good to turn down. He was a lay on the winner market but also on the derivative markets like Top 5, Top 10, Top 20 etc
On the Top 5 market for example he was trading at 5.5 and our model had him at 7.9 (true price)
Backing on the exchange and finding value
- I recommend you focus on the 'Winner' market if you're starting out, this market will have by far the most liquidity especially on Wednesday's leading up to the events
- It's important to remember that we need a value % threshold when using the projections.
- As a rule of thumb I recommend at least a 20% implied edge
- An example below would be Harris English who I had at 35.00 to win, on the Exchange he was available at 55.00 - 60.00
- The implied edge on the bet is 56.42% so its a bet as its greater than our minimum value threshold of 20%
The next step to identify potential bets is to get live betfair prices into excel. I use the Gruss software to do this and then you can compare our projections to current prices.
You just sort the players so they match up. The column "BACK SELECTION" is just an IF statement and the % Value formula is ODDS TAKEN/100% PRICE -1
OK so we have identified potential back bets. As mentioned before our baseline value % is around 20% so we can ignore all selections below this.
Alex Noren is 240 on BF and our model makes him 197. As I said before the bigger the odds the greater value % you need to back it. At prices bigger than 200/1 I would need at least 50% value and maybe even bigger. If you were trading you could settle for a bit less but in general it would be around that mark.
The most obvious bet is Daniel Berger who looks good value at 320. The model makes him 123 which equates to a value% of 159%. He currently sits tied in 35th place 7 shots behind Justin Thomas.
Obviously with prices this big your goal is to get them to trade around the 50/60 mark so that you could trade out as winning is very unlikely. As the market is much bigger on the win market its very likely that there will be potential value in the T10/T20 markets
I understand for a lot of followers you will want to ask questions and learn how to take advantage of the market, so for that reason there will be an open group for all members to ask questions and learn at least for the first month or so.