Nice Over 1.5 team goals at 1.9 with Pinnacle (1.78 min) - 2 units

Nice

  • Nice have already played 5 of the current Top 8 in the league so I don't believe they've had the easiest start to the season. In their matches against current bottom half teams (St Etienne, Angers, Nantes, and Strasbourg) they won them all while averaging 2.1xG per match
  • Nice are coming off a bad home loss to Slavia Prague (1-3) on Thursday but in truth they weren't as bad as the scoreline suggests. Nice hit the woodwork a couple of times and didn't do a bad job creating chances. xG 1.53-1.03 in Nice's favour
  • In Nice's last 10 home games against bottom 6 opponents they have scored 1.8 goals per match (Dijon 20th)
  • Nice's team news isn't positive but they're mostly missing defensive players. Schneiderlin, Dante, and Dolberg are all set to miss out
  • Nice were very reliant on Dolberg for goals but recently Amine Gouiri has been outperforming him with 0.83 goal contributions per 9o in all competitions (Goals + Assists)
  • At the back Dante is a big loss, he's still their best CB and we saw just how much they struggled with simple balls into the box mid-week, Morgan Schneiderlin missing also makes they significantly weaker defensively, he's their top performer when it comes down to team xGA per 90 mins
  • Nice are likely go with a more attacking 4-3-3 like they did mid-week. Rony Lopez, Amine Gouiri, and Jeff Reine-Adélaïde should all start in attack

Dijon

  • David Linarès has taken charge at Dijon, he's only had two games in charge so far but things don't seem to have improved much, they lost to Lens giving up 1.74xG while drawing with Metz and giving up 2.51 xG.
  • In their matches with teams in the top half (PSG, Lyon, Bordeaux, Rennes, Lens, and Montpellier) Dijon have allowed on average 2.5 goals per game with 2.47 average xGA
  • Dijon currently rank dead last in Europe's top 5 leagues for xGA, they have actually been worse than their results indicate, the only team that comes remotely close to how bad they've been is Schalke
  • When travelling to teams in the top half of the table, Dijon have lost 7 of their last 10 and conceded on average 2.1 goals a game.

Final word: Nice with their defensive issues cannot be trusted to win here but I believe they will still carry a significant attacking threat against one of the worst defences in Europe