PAOK Over 1.5 team goals at 2.1 with Pinnacle - 2 units
  • We backed PAOK in the away leg with the +0.5 handicap and were dreadfully unlucky not to cash that bet, PAOK missed a penalty and overall did enough in my opinion to avoid defeat.
  • If we exclude the penalties, PAOK created the better chances with 1.38xG to Krasnodar’s 1.13.
  • The Russians had three decent chances and converted both (includes the penalty) PAOK had five decent chances and hit the net just once.
  • PAOK have played two home games in Europe this season and won both. Against Besiktas, they ran out 3-1 winners, and against Benfica, they won 2-1
  • PAOK have played 4 UCL/UEL home matches under Ferreira with 2+ goals scored in each (Ajax, Bratislava, Besiktas, and Benfica)
  • Over the last calendar year PAOK have scored 1.86 goals per 90 while generating exactly 2.00xG per match. (all comps)
  • Back on home soil, PAOK should prove too much for a Krasnodar side that has never travelled well in European competition.
  • Krasnodar conceded 14 goals in their last five road games in European competition. From those five games, they won just once (vs Trabzonspor)
  • The season before that it was a similar story, they won just once in European competition vs an inferior Turkish side (Akhisar Belediyespor) while losing to Standard Liege, Sevilla, and Valencia.
  • Domestically away from home this season Krasnodar have only won once too, that came against FC Ufa who are 2nd last in the league.
  • The last time Krasnodar travelled to a similarly ranked team to PAOK (63rd ECI)  was away to Basel (70th ECI) last season where they lost 5-0
  • Like their previous meeting, PAOK rotated heavily in the league at the weekend and will be fully rested and prepared for this huge match.

Final word: Once the first goal is scored tonight we should start to see things open up. Krasnodar in my opinion are not a team that can afford to sit back and defend a lead.