Gasperini has said today that he will do everything he can to secure 2nd place but his side do have one eye on the PSG Champions league quarterfinal in two weeks time.
- With Toloi out suspended and Palomino likely rested Atalanta will be weaker at the back with Caldara and Sutalo both expected to start
- Atalanta have drawn 6 of their last 10 away games against top half teams (Parma T9th) so I'm not entirely sure I'd fancy them here at these odds
- Their most recent 7 away games against top half teams reads D D D D L D D
- Parma can potentially shoot up the table even further with results going their way so I don't think they'll take the game too lightly (TV Revenue $ money is affected by finishing league position)
- Atalanta destroyed Parma earlier in the season (5-0) but I'm not going to put too much weight into that result as a lot has changed since then.
- Atalanta have seen a decline in xG. Since that epic comeback against Lazio, Atalanta have averaged just 1.6xG which is quite a bit below their 2.26 season average
- Although they are among the kings of goalscoring in Europe, It might surprise you to know that Atalanta rarely beat team by 2 or more goals when away from home. In their last 20 we've only see them do it 6 times.
- Lecce, Torino, Brescia are the only teams they've beaten away from home by a 2 or more goal margin in 2020. (All 3 rank in the bottom 5 of Serie A for xGA and goals against)
- Parma have miraculously only lost once at home by a 2 or more goal margin this season. That came in a 1-3 loss to Cagliari which just so happened to be one of the unfairest results of Parma's season (xG 1.33-0.68)
- Overall we've seen solid numbers from Parma at home, they have a positive GD (+0.17 p90) and a positive xGD (+0.01 p90), No team has come here all year and truly dominated them
Team News: As mentioned, Atalanta are expected to be weaker at the back with Toloi suspended and Palomino likely rested. As for Parma they should remain fairly unchanged
Final word: With Atalanta resigned to a 2nd/3rd finish I don't see motivation levels being that high. We're also likely to see plenty of rotation from Gasperini too, he won't want to burn out his players before a historic UCL encounter in two weeks.
Parma +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.92 with Bet365 - 1.5 units