• Parma tend to be very underrated in betting markets and it appears they’ve been severely overlooked here. Are we expected to think Parma will roll over because Napoli are supposedly in the hunt for a Europa League place? I don't think that justifies the price on offer for Napoli (1.5)
  • Motivation will remain until the last day of the season for Parma, teams in their position need to finish as high as possible not only for prize money but also to secure TV money. Parma can improve drastically on their 14th position with some positive results in these remaining games.
  • Parma have been excellent at home against Top half teams, in their last 10 they have gone unbeaten in 7 with 14 scored and 14 conceded
  • They also beat Napoli in the San Paolo earlier in the season (1-2)
  • When travelling to teams in the middle third, Napoli have only won 4 of their last 10 matches with 15 scored and 12 conceded.
  • Napoli won’t be at their strongest here either. A front 3 of Insigne-Politano-Lozano is expected to start. Their top goalscorer Milik (11 goals) is suspended while Mertens is a doubt. Insigne-Politano-Lozano have just 11 goals between them this season
  • As for Parma, they’ll be at full strength, particularly in attack with Gervinho, Inglese, and Kulusevski all expected to start in attack
  • Parma have lost 6 of 9 matches since the restart but that doesn’t paint a very accurate picture, their losses to Sampdoria, Fiorentina, Verona, and Inter were all quite harsh. They could have easily taken something from those games.
  • Looking at the xG scores for Napoli since the restart we can only see two definitive wins for the Partenopei, those came against SPAL (3-1, xG 1.95-0.53 and Roma 2-1 xGg 2.34-0.7)
  • Napoli have only won 3 of their last 20 league matches by a 2 or more goal margin. And they have won 0 matches by 2+ goals during the same time frame. Parma are also a team that tends not to be beaten badly, they have only lost 2 of their last 20 league games by a 2 or more goal margin.

Final word: The narrative that teams don’t have anything left to play for is a lazy assessment, these are professionals and a lot is still on the line for teams especially in terms of economic rewards for finishing higher up the table. Napoli should be priced closer to 1.9 in my opinion so taking the +1.5 is obvious value.

Expected line-ups:

Parma +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.67 with Pinnacle (Parma +0.5 and +1 AH also playable) - 2 units