Under 3.5 Total goals at 1.86 with Pinnacle - 2 units

PSG

  • PSG came away with an impressive 4-1 in Camp Nou a result that probably flattered them a bit. PSG put up 1.72xG and converted all their big chances. Defensively however they were very solid, they conceded from a dubious penalty and restricted Barca to scraps from open play.
  • Messi was kind of neutralized too, apart from his penalty and a deflected free kick he didn't do much. Not only shots, but successful dribbles and touches in the box were way down.
  • At the weekend PSG pretty much rested their entire backline as well so they'll be close to their best
  • Expected XI: Navas - Kehrer (or Florenzi), Marquinhos, Kimpembe, Kurzawa - Paredes, Gueye - Di Maria (or Sarabia), Verratti, Mbappé - Icardi
  • With the game poised as it is I expect a slow tempo from PSG with plenty of time wasting. PSG have nothing to prove in this match.
  • Under Pochettino PSG have only conceded 9 goals in 15 matches (9 clean sheets)
  • Only in two of those games did they concede more than once (Lorient and Monaco) vs Lorient they fielded a weak XI and only conceded 1.27xGA and against Monaco they only allowed 1.03xGA

Barcelona

  • In terms of form things are looking up for Barca, they're coming off four consecutive wins and are unbeaten since the first leg against PSG
  • More importantly, their xGA is way down on the season average. If we remove the penalties they have conceded in that time frame (Cadiz & Sevilla matches) they have only allowed on average 0.43 non penalty xGA which is encouraging.
  • Barca have been playing a 3-5-2 lately and we should expect a back three of Umtiti, Lenglet, Mingueza with  Dest and Alba on the flanks
  • No one expects Barca to turn this tie around and personally I think avoiding another humiliation and putting in a respectable performance will be more on the agenda for Koeman. Success in this competition this season was never on the cards so I don't expect an all out reckless attacking gameplan.
  • Not giving Barca any kind of momentum will be key for PSG here, they will be determined to not allow Barca to score early. Playing out a dull 0-0 will be perfectly acceptable for Poch here.

Final word: People look at these two teams and automatically expect goals, I don't think we see that here, PSG will do what it takes to qualify.