RB Leipzig +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.72 with Pinnacle (min 1.67) - 2 units
** Bet given to private Telegram members at 15.55 on Saturday
- RB Leipzig have recovered some players so their team news heading into this tie is quite positive. Only Henrichs, Laimer, Forsberg and Szoboszlai will be unavailable and none are automatic starters
- Expected XI: Gulacsi - Mukiele, Upamecano, Orban - Adams, Sabitzer (c), Kampl, Angelino - Olmo, Nkunku - Poulsen
- Key players like Upamecano, Sabitzer, Adams, Mukiele and Konate only played a minor role on Friday night against Augsburg so they should be fresh.
- Playing on Friday also means they'll have an extra days recovery/preparation
- So far in this years UCL campaign RBL have been exceptional in defence, although they are averaging 2.00 goals against per 90 they have been a lot better than that number suggests.
- From open play in both games against PSG they gave up just 1.25xGA across the 180 mins
- The 5-0 thrashing away to Utd was bad but I'm not going to focus on one naive performance, in the return match in Germany they restricted Utd to only scraps from open play (1.03 non-penalty xG)
- In the two games with Başakşehir they restricted them to 1.71xGA over 180 mins
- Last season RBL defensively were one of the best teams in the competition with 1.16xGA against per 90
- Domestically we've seen an improvement from RBL in both goals against and xGA per 90. Last season they allowed 1.22xGA per 90 while this season that average is down to 0.84xGA
- Going forward there has been a drop off in xG production (Werner leaving) but overall they're still elite (similar numbers to Liverpool, Atalanta, Man City, Dortmund)
- Liverpool have lost 3 matches on the bounce now and their injury crisis isn't looking much better. James Milner left the pitch against Leicester and is likely unavailable for this match
- Liverpool's expected XI tonight could look something like this: Alisson, TAA, Kabak, Henderson, Robertson, Thiago, Wijnaldum, Jones, Salah, Firmino, Mané
- Thiago and Wijnaldum are in need of a rest in my opinion. Thiago has been playing close to 90 mins almost every 3-4 days for the past month, as has Wijnaldum.
- Overall this season Liverpool have a negative xG difference from the group stages despite putting up healthy numbers in their two matches against Midtjylland and their 1st match with Atalanta (5-0)
- This season they are allowing 1.69xGA per 90 while only generating 1.48 themselves. The biggest over performance has been at the back, they've been far worse than their 4 clean sheets suggest
Final word: Liverpool are going through an immensely difficult period and now have to travel to Hungary to take on one of the more in-form sides in Europe. Expect RBL to bring a higher level of intensity and avoid defeat.