Dortmund Over 1.5 team goals at 2.52 with Pinnacle - 1 unit (min 2.25)

RB Leipzig

  • As we've been discussing, RB Leipzig are a long way away from the team they were last season; while the attacking output has been maintained, they have declined significantly in defence.
  • Jesse Marsch's more precarious approach has meant more chances at both ends and generally higher scoring games
  • Across all competitions this season, RBL are allowing 1.44 goals per 90 with 1.39xGA.
  • If we take away their DFB Pokal games, this average rises to 1.64 goals against per 90. Last season that number was 1.14 against per 90
  • RBL will be missing two starters from their backline; both Klostermann and Orbán will miss out here
  • Expected XI: Gulasci, Mukiele, Simikan, Gvardiol, Angelino, Laimer, Forsberg, Haidara, Nkunku, Poulsen, Szoboszlai
  • Leipzig haven't had the toughest of schedules so far, having only faced one of the top 5 attacks in the league (Bayern 4-1 loss)
  • Overall, their recent record against top-half sides is uninspiring, with 2 wins from their last 10 and 1.5 conceded per match.
  • Under Marsch RBL have conceded at least once in 11 of 14 matches (excluding DFB Pokal)

Dortmund

  • Dortmund has a lengthy injury list, including Haaland, but will likely still field a strong XI that should be respected.
  • Since Ajax demolition in Amsterdam (4-0), Dortmund have been fielding weak XI's and have still averaged an xG of about 1.7
  • There are still massive concerns in defence, but that doesn't interest us here for the sake of our bet.
  • Expected XI: Kobel, Meunier, Pongračić, Hummels, Akanji, Bellingham, Witsel, Brandt, Hazard, Malen, Reus
  • No team in the league has a better recent record against top-half opposition. Dortmund have won 9 of their last 10 with 2.7 goals scored per game.
  • Although Dortmund's goal-scoring numbers in the Bundesliga are off the charts with Haaland (3.33 goals per 90 average with him on the pitch), they still have enough of an attacking threat to trouble this RBL side.
  • When these sides met at the end of last season, Haaland wasn't involved either, and Dortmund ran out 3-2 winners.
  • Dortmund have had a lot of success over this club in recent seasons; since the 18/19 season, they have played seven times, Dortmund have won 6 and scored 2+ in 86%
  • Dortmund, along with Bayern and Hoffenheim, are the best in the league at resisting the press according to their OPPDA score. This is generally a trademark of Dortmund's play which could explain why they tend to have so much success against RBL's intense press.