Frankfurt +0.5 Asian Handicap at 2.13 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units

RB Leipzig

  • RBL are coming off a disappointing midweek fixture against a depleted Liverpool side. Once again, chance creation is a massive problem for this side in 20/21.
  • Their top goalscorer this season is Nkunku, who's score 6 times in 19 matches.
  • Their CF options of Poulsen, Sorloth, and Hwang haven't come close to trying to replace Timo Werner. So far this season, the three have 8 goals from a combined 80 attempts on goal
  • Considering the tough midweek game away in Budapest, Nagelsmann may be forced to rotate a bit
  • Expected XI: Gulasci, Mukiele, Upamecano, Orban, Halstenberg, Sabitzer, Olmo, Kampl, Haidara, Sorloth, Nkunku
  • Nagelsmann has always struggled against Adi Hutter's direct style of play. So far in his young career, he's gone H2H with the Austrian 6 times and won just once
  • When the sides met back in November, they played out 1-1 in what was a very even contest, 1.03-1.21xG in Frankfurt's favour) Poulsen scored a wonder goal in that game; apart from that chance, they barely had a sniff at goal.
  • RBL have won just 4 of their last 10 matches with Top 6 opponents, from those games they scored 16 and conceded 12
  • If we filter that top 6 record to just home games, they've won just 2 with 9 scored and 13 conceded

Frankfurt

  • Frankfurt dropped points at the weekend against Stuttgart but are still sitting strong in 4th place.
  • Coming into this game, their team news is better, and they also had no midweek distractions, unlike Leipzig.
  • Frankfurt have avoided defeat in 21 of their 24 league matches this season.
  • Their xG difference for the season also confirms they're the 4th best team in Germany this season, so they're not overperforming; they're where they deserve to be.
  • Let's take a close look at those 3 losses.
  • vs Werder they gave away two sloppy chances, which Werder converted. Overall not a game they should have lost (1.18-1.11 xG in Frankfurt's favour)
  • vs Wolfsburg they were second best and deserved to lose (xG 2.81-1.51 in Wolfsburg's favour)
  • vs Bayern (1st match), they got run over 5-0, that was before Bayern's form fell off a cliff.
  • Unlike RB Leipzig, Frankfurt have a respectable recent record against Top 6 sides going W5 D3 L2 in their last 10 (16 scored, 12 conceded)