Lokomotiv Moscow to score @ 1.69 with Pinnacle - 2 units
*BTTS fine above 1.8
- We all know by this stage the Red Bull brand of football and how they will approach this match. We can expect high intensity from the Austrians and plenty of chances at either end.
- Jesse Marsch saw a lot of key players leave last year including Haland, Minimino, and Hwang Hee-Chan but as is always the case with the Red Bull clubs there’s always someone ready to step up. Patson Daka and Sekou Koita have been the new stars and they’ve been equally as impressive
- Both Koita and Daka averaged closed 1 goal per 90 in all competitions last season
- We saw Salzburg in action in qualification against a very weak Maccabi Tel Aviv side who had a number of players missing with Covid, Salzburg put up incredibly strong xG numbers as usual (3.25 average) but showed they were vulnerable at the back in both matches (conceded in both)
- Salzburg have now conceded at least once in all of their last 9 UCL matches including qualifiers.
- Under Jesse Marsch, this side has never kept a clean sheet in Europe
- In the UCL group phase last term they allowed 2.17 goals per 90 with 1.86xGA per 90 (Liverpool, Genk, and Napoli all came here and scored 2+) Frankfurt did the same in the UEL when the eliminated them.
- RB Salzburg will be weaker in defence too with André Ramalho expected to miss out (injured not included in squad). He was their most-used defender last season.
- Lokomotiv haven’t been that prolific in the RFPL this season but their underlying xG isn’t that bad in my opinion, They’re still Top 6 for xG (last season they ranked 3rd best for xG production in Russia)
- In terms of form I like what Lokomotiv have been doing too, 4 wins from 4 with an average xG of 1.63
- Last season Loko had an incredibly tough group (Juve, Atleti, and Bayer) but still managed to score in 2 of their 3 road games
Final word: With Bayern and Atletico in this group Loko will be treating it as a winnable game, I don’t expect a defensive display. They will have their chances.