Villarreal Over 1.5 team goals at 2.36 with Pinnacle (min 2.2) - 2 units

** tipped at 15.53 to private Telegram

RB Salzburg

  • RB Salzburg are without their preferred CB pairing of Wöber (injured thigh) and Ramalho (suspended)
  • Vallci (natural FB) and the inexperienced Solet (first-ever senior UEL game) should deputize in their place. CM Mwepu is also an option, but he's never played a full match for RB Salzburg at CB. Whichever way they decide to line up it will be less than ideal.
  • Even without the absentees, I'd still fancy Villarreal to get this total over the line, Salzburg have given up 2.5 goals per 90 across all European games in the last calendar year.
  • During that period three clubs from a Top 5 league have travelled here, and every time they've scored 2+ (Atleti, Bayern, and Frankfurt)
  • Under Jesse Marsch, Salzburg have never beaten a team from a Top 5 league. And only one occasion did they manage to restrict an opposing team to 2 goals or less (Napoli 1-1 in Nov 2019, Napoli generated 2.15xG)
  • I'm not expecting RB Salzburg's philosophy to change because we're in the KO stages, we can expect them to be as aggressive as ever, but as we've seen against top teams, they can be torn to shreds in an instant

Villarreal

  • Appointing a UEL specialist in Unai Emery seems to have paid off for Villarreal thus far, they've won 5 from 6 games, rank 1st for xGA and 5th for goals per 90 (2.65)
  • Villarreal's team news is slightly more positive, they have recovered Trigueros, Pino, Chukwueze, and Capoue. Emery said today "We are recovering people, only Mario (Gaspar) and Coquelin are staying at home, plus Alberto (Moreno) and Iborra"
  • It's expected that Villarreal will line up with a line-up close to this: Asenjo; Pena, Albiol, Torres, Pedraza; Baena, Foyth, Parejo; Moreno, Alcácer , Gomez
  • Alcácer (0.96 p90 goal contributions) and Gerard Moreno (0.82 per 90 goal contributions) both being available from the start should help us too
  • Along with the other top teams in Spain (Barca, Sevilla, Real, and Atletico) Villarreal rank high for press resistance so I'm not entirely convinced RB Salzburg will have a huge amount of success with their usual gameplan.

Final word: One thing is for certain, this game will be played at a rapid pace and we should see goals. At this price the Villarreal TT (Team Total) makes the most sense