Real Madrid to win at 2.45 with Pinnacle - 1.5 units (min 2.3)

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid are coming off one of their best performances of the season against Gladbach in the Champions League. They won 2-0 in convincing fashion, Gladbach who are a very dangerous side managed to fashion just one decent chance while Real Madrid peppered the Gladbach goal with 19 total attempts (2.04-0.6 xG)
  • Prior to that they beat Sevilla on their home turf (0-1, 0.45-1.4xG)
  • Sergio Ramos and Dani Carvajal returning to the backline is definitely a factor for Real Madrid recent success
  • Of all Real Madrid's defenders, they achieve their best team xGA with Ramos, Mendy and Carvajal on the pitch and all will be available here
  • The one notable absentee is Hazard who's injured again, but Real Madrid will have Benzema, Rodrygo, Vinicius, and Asensio all available for this game
  • As I mentioned a few weeks ago, Real Madrid do tend to up their game against better teams, just looking at their LaLiga data we can see they are the best performing team in the league when facing a Top 6 opponent. Real have won 8 of their last 10 with 19 scored and 9 conceded
  • Since the start of the 16/17 season these sides have met 7 times in the league and Atletico have not won a single game while being outscored 9-3
  • Zidane also holds a strong record over Simeone, his side are unbeaten against Atletico in 9 of 11 meetings.
  • In the two most recent meetings Real Madrid have been the better side by quite a distance, looking at the Super Cup game and the last La Liga meeting we can see a combined xG of 3.28 - 1.39 in Real Madrid's favour.

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico also won mid-week in their away game against Salzburg, the Austrians gave them a tough game, created a bundle of good chances but couldn't come away with anything. (2.12xG conceded and 17 attempts on their goal)
  • One thing that jumps out from Atletico's season so far is that they're not as good defensively as their results indicate. So far this season they are allowing just 0.2 goals against per 90 but 0.92xGA per 90
  • Atletico have faced two top team this season, Barca and Villarreal, both results were positive but what's worrying for them is their chance creation. Had it not been for the ter Stegen error in the Barca match they wouldn't have scored in either
  • Away from the Wanda they are allowing a higher xGA per 90 but so far this season they've only taken on bottom tier opponents (4 clubs in the bottom 8)
  • Atletico's team news isn't ideal either they'll remain without their best CB José Giménez and Diego Costa. We should expect to see the same XI that took the field in Austria mid-week

Final word: These games are always close but I feel the momentum is with Real Madrid and should they be able to score just once they could very well take all three points.