Under 3 Total goals at 1.88 with Pinnacle  - 2 units (min 1.82)

Real Madrid

  • Real Madrid impressed midweek as they dispatched Liverpool 3-1 (xG 2.3-0.6). One concern, however, will be the lack of rotation. All Real Madrid's defenders and midfielders played a whole 90 mins
  • vs Top 6 Real Madrid are excellent, in their last ten they are unbeaten with 16 goals scored and only 7 conceded
  • If we filter this to home games, Real are W9 D1 L0 with 21 scored and 8 conceded
  • In the UCL, they restricted both Liverpool and Atalanta impressively.
  • Domestically Real Madrid have been superb defensively this season with only 0.79 goals conceded per 90 and 1.12xGA per 90
  • Militão and Nacho have both stepped up at CB, particularly Nacho.
  • With Nacho in the team this season the hosts are only allowing 0.67 goals against per 90 and 0.88xGA. He's not the sole reason, but It's clear how well he's been playing recently.
  • I wouldn't expect too many changes from the team that played midweek; Real are still in the hunt for the title and will want to avoid defeat at all costs.
  • Real have seen less than four goals in 17 of their last 20 at home; considering the implications this match has on the title race, I'd expect Zidane to take a cautious approach.

Barcelona

  • Barca's recent road record against the top 6 is quite inconsistent; they've won just 4 of their last 10 with 16 scored and 11 conceded.
  • Like Real Madrid, Barcelona have been putting up respectable xGA numbers and have only conceded 0.78 goals per 90 mins.
  • In their last match against a top 6 side (Real Sociedad), they allowed just 0.92xGA (2 shots allowed in box)
  • Prior to that, they restricted Sevilla to 0.14xGA and four attempts on goal.
  • Unlike the last meeting, Barcelona will be a lot stronger for this game, with only Coutinho and Fati missing.
  • Some media outlets suggest a back 3 of Mingueza, Pique, and Lenglet with Dest and Alba out wide. Barca have been even better defensively in this shape (3 CB's) with just 0.38 goals against per 90
  • Expected XI: Ter Stegen, Alba, Mingueza, Pique, Lenglet, Dest, Busquets, Pedri, de Jong, Messi, and Dembélé
  • Like Real Madrid, this is more a match they can't afford to lose, so I expect more caution than usual.