Over 1.5 Atletico Madrid team goals @ 1.85 - 1.5 units (min 1.81)

Red Bull Salzburg

  • Salzburg need a win in this game and won't deviate from their regular gung-ho style of play, This team despite losing Haaland, Minamino, and Chang still carry an enormous goal-scoring threat and can trouble Atleti.
  • Here they will be close to full strength in attack with Patson Daka returning from injury, the Zambian played 60 mins at the weekend and should be ready to go.
  • With their attacking threat known and style of play predictable, we can expect Atletico to have a lot of success themselves. In the first meeting, Atletico scored 3 times, got off 19 attempts and generated 2.89xG
  • Salzburg also tend to have the tendency to fade late in games, already in this group stage they have given up 2 goals per 2nd half this season. It was a similar story last season too.
  • Defensively only one team has been worse than RB Salzburg this season, that being Ferencváros who have conceded 16 goals while the Austrians 15
  • Jesse Marsch's RB Salzburg have never kept a clean sheet in a European match (15 matches UCL+UEL+UCL Qualification)

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico should match up well here as they did in the first meeting, Salzburg cannot defend and we've seen that time and time again in Europe
  • The Austrian outfit have allowed 3 goals per game, although their xGA isn't as bad as their goals conceded number they still look poor at the back.
  • Atletico Madrid will be buoyed by the return of Luis Suarez, he is expected to line up with João Félix in attack
  • Atletico Madrid's goals per 90 average is the highest it's been in 4 seasons and we can put that down to Suarez (0.79 goal contributions p90) joining and Félix (0.82 goal contributions p90) coming of age
  • Atleti likely won't rely on grinding out a 0-0 for qualification, they are a more complete team and should have no problems creating their own chances.
  • Atletico Madrid are one of the best sides in Europe at resisting opposition pressing (OPPDA) and so should be able to cut through Salzburg creating plenty of chances.
  • As we know now, RB Salzburg will press aggressively high up the pitch leaving space in behind.
  • From set-pieces we can also expect Atletico to create chances too, Salzburg have the 3rd worst Aerial duel success in the competition and have already conceded a competition high 5 goals from headers

Final word: With RB Salzburg chasing a result here I think it sets up very nicely for Atletico Madrid. Expect a similar game to the 1st meeting in Madrid.