Roma got back on track with a comfortable 3-0 win over Brescia last time out. They did so with Kalinić standing in for Dzeko which is encouraging. For this match Roma should return to full strength with Dzeko leading the line and their No/1 Pau Lopez returning between the sticks.

  • Verona have proved to be a tough nut to crack this season but there are a few reasons to fade them here.
  • First off, they have a thin squad and have seen little rotation during this stretch. Key players like Rrahmani, Kumbulla, and Amrabat have played almost every minute. They don’t have the luxury of a big squad like Roma and should struggle a bit more as the season closes out
  • I’m not sure how high motivation will be in the Verona camp, but I can’t imagine very high, the team is set to finish mid-table with the European places being just out of reach. The squad will also be torn to shreds when the season ends with players returning to parent clubs and key players like Kumbulla being sold
  • Verona have been poor on the road against the Top 6, they have lost 4 of their 6 matches this season with 5 scored and 10 conceded
  • Roma’s positive start to the season was undone when Diawara and Zaniolo picked up bad injuries. Thankfully they are back fit again and will be available to Fonseca. Both suit the Portuguese manager’s system and are vital.
  • Roma won the last meeting 3-1 away from home (xG 2.11-1.22)
  • Verona’s chance creation against the Top 6 should be a concern for them here. They generated 0.75 against Inter and fortunately scored twice, against Napoli they lost 2-0 generating just 0.79, against Juve they won 2-1 but their xG from open play was again very low (0.86), against Lazio they put up 0.56xG creating no worthwhile chances, If we got back further we see a similar trend
  • Verona have been worse on the road than their record suggests, they are giving up on average 1.69xGA per 90 but are only conceding 1.25 per 90. This puts them in the bottom tier when it comes to preventing chances on the road (At home they’re a Top 6 defence)
  • Unlike Verona, Roma have actually been underperforming at home, they generate on average 2.34xG per home game  while conceding just 1.26

Final word

Roma have been very impressive in their last two outings scoring 5 and generating 6.33xG. With an almost completely healthy squad expect Roma to have too much for Verona as Serie A’s surprise package slowly starts to run out of steam.

Roma to win @ 1.67 with Bet Victor (Don't be below 1.61) - 2 units