Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.98 with Pinnacle (min 1.91) - 1 unit

Salzburg

  • Salzburg's attacking output this season has been maintained despite the players that left during the summer transfer window. So far they are scoring at a rate of 2.86 goals per 90 with 2.63xG
  • From their three European games they have conceded in all three games (Brondby x2 and Sevilla) so we should expect Lille to also add to the goal line here
  • Salzburg have been consistently excellent in the attacking phase in Europe and we saw that in the Sevilla game. Sevilla rank as one of the most organised and toughest defences in Europe and Salzburg overwhelmed them.
  • Even last season against Bayern and Atletico they put up impressive attacking metrics, against Atletico they generated 2.15xG with 17 attempts on goal and against Bayern 1.64xG with 15 attempts on goal
  • Over the last calendar year Salzburg have played 12 games in Europe that have averaged 3.66 goals per game with 3.65 average xG per 90 (total)
  • From that sample there were no clean sheets
  • Defensively Salzburg could have problems (more so than usual) Wober, Solet, and Piatkowski (all center backs) could potentially miss out through injury. Between the three of them they have 18 starts this season
  • Bernardo (natural LB) and Onguéné could pair at CB as they did at the weekend. Bernardo from what I can see has only ever played 90 mins at CB twice for Salzburg, once in a 3-2 loss to WSG Swarovski in April and once at the weekend against Wolfsberger (2-0 win).
  • In attack we can expect Adeyemi and Sesko/Okafor to lead the line with Brenden Aaronson playing just behind. The midfield should take a similar look to the one that they fielded against Sevilla

Lille

  • Lille are not the same team they were last season under Christophe Galtier, and we can see already they're far more leaky at the back.
  • Last season they were allowing 0.61 goals per 90 with 0.78xGA. This season that has increased to 1.75 goals against per 90 with 1.39xGA
  • In attack their goal scoring rate has dropped slightly while their xG per 90 has increased.
  • Here they could have some success with turnovers, they have a lot of pace with David/Ikone/Weah that could trouble Salzburg's high line
  • Expected XI: Grbić, Mandava, Botman, Fonte, Çelik, Xeka, Andre, Gomes, Yılmaz, Ikone, David
  • Overall in Europe and Ligue 1 they have averaged 11.33 attempts with 1.51xG per 90 so as mentioned above they shouldn't have a problem adding to the goal line

Final word: With Salzburg likely weaker than usual in defence this bet makes a lot of sense, expect a high intensity game with chances at both ends.