Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.92 with Pinnacle/10bet/188bet (1.85 min) 2 units

Sampdoria

  • Samp's team news positive, Tonelli is the only causality (starter) as of today. Gabbadini (1 start and 0 goals) is also out as is La Gumnia (2 starts 0 goals)
  • Defensively Samp are the worst they've been for a while. The 1.87xGA per 90 is worst it's been for the last 5 years (my data doesn't go back further)
  • Overall this season we're seeing a combined xG of 3.19 per game and 3.00 goals per game.
  • Although their goals against tally isn't massive, they do rank in the bottom 5 for chances allowed. Only Benevento, Crotone, Spezia, and Cagliari have been worse.
  • Their last 10 at home against bottom half teams have been quite high scoring too (3.5 per game)
  • At home in Serie A this season we've seen their games average 3.3 goals with a per 90 xG average of 3.49
  • Torregrossa who had a decent season last year with Brescia was signed this winter and so far Samp's xG and goal numbers are positive with him, Keita Baldé has also shown some good form since being involved more in the first team (0.85 goal contributions per 90)
  • Small sample size overall but Samp's attacking output improves with them, who will partner Quagliarella in this match is unknown but they'll have options in attack.

Fiorentina

  • Fiorentina will still be without their best CB Milinkovic for this game but also their tireless DM Sofyan Amrabat, both are huge losses.
  • This probably means a back 3 of Pezzella, Igor, and Quarta. Quarta seemingly a weak link, Fiorentina allow 1.83 xGA per 90 with him and 1.7 goals against per 90
  • Millenkovic is the most dominant of all Sampdoria's CB's in the air so they could be a little bit exposed in that department
  • Amrabat missing should mean less protection in midfield but a greater creative threat assuming we see Pulgar, Castrovilli, Bonaventura start
  • Of all the teams in Serie A, only one team has been worse defensively away from home (Crotone)
  • Although they are bottom tier for goals (2nd worst) Fiorentina are a mid-table club when it comes to chance creation so at least one goal here shouldn't be out of the question
  • Prandelli probably see's this as a winnable game so I wouldn't expect too much of a negative game plan from his side.