• Milan will come into this game with an additional two days of rest which is huge when you consider the fixture congestion since the restart. They will also be boosted by the return of their best CM Ismaël Bennacer and starting LB Theo Hernández
  • Sampdoria have new absentees, they will be without Thorsby (1846 mins) in CM after he was sent off against Juventus. Elsewhere they will be without Ekdal (2385 mins) Ramirez (1347 mins), and Bereszynski (2312 mins). Defenders Colley and Augello are also doubts but should start.
  • If we exclude Quagliarella, these three players (Ekdal, Gastón Ramírez, Thorsby) have the highest impact on overall xG +/- team success which is very significant in my opinion.
  • Motivation levels should still remain high for Milan, they don’t want to finish in 7th and have to navigate the early qualification rounds of the UEL.
  • According to Gazetta dello Sport  we should expect Milan to line up similar to how they did against Atalanta (Bennacer replacing Biglia, and Theo replacing Laxalt). Gabbia will be trusted at CB again with Kjaer. The 20-year-old gave a good account of himself against Atalanta las time out.
  • On paper, Milan have performed their best defensively with Kjaer on the pitch followed by Romagnoli. Gabbia, however, is rightly the 3rd best CB at Milan this season with only 1.25 GA per 90 and 1.3 team xGA per 90.
  • Sampdoria have lost 8 of their last 10 against Top 6 teams, no team in the league is worse (last 10)
  • From these games, Samp scored just 8 and conceded 22
  • Excluding their 2-2 with SPAL (they won the xG 1.6-0.62) Milan have beaten every team outside the Top 6 since the restart.
  • They have also averaged 2.03xG per match since the restart despite playing Roma, Lazio, Juventus, Napoli, and Atalanta

Final word: Providing Milan can get their necks in front this bet should land quite easily, Sampdoria fell apart against Juve after the 1st goal and I expect the same here

AC Milan to win at 1.64 with Betsafe/Marathonbet - 2 units