Genoa +1 Asian Handicap at 1.64 with Pinnacle - 2 units

Sassuolo

  • Despite getting thumped by Atalanta yesterday, Sassuolo are still over performing at both ends of the pitch. They have scored 1.8 per 90 with just 1.44xG per 90 while they have conceded only 1.47 per 90 despite giving up 2.09xGA per 90.
  • Sassuolo have not outplayed an opponent since they took on Bologna back in mid October (4-3 win, xG 2.4-1.56 in Sassuolo's favour) and saying outplayed is a little unfair to Bologna, they just fell apart after the Tomiyasu red card in the 75th min.
  • Since then they have won 3 games, none of which were deserved. They beat Napoli 2-0 despite creating almost nothing from open play, they beat Hellas despite being 2nd best for the majority of the game (xG 0.45-2.35 in Verona's favour) and they beat Benevento 1-0 despite giving up 3.24 xGA and allowing 25 attempts on their goal.
  • Currently Sassuolo rank 12th in the league for their expected goal differential which is a better indicator than league position (Sassuolo sit 6th currently)
  • Ignoring their games with the newly promoted sides, Sassuolo have only won 1 match by more than one goal and that was an undeserved one against Napoli

Genoa

  • Genoa are sitting 2nd from bottom but this looks like a different team under Ballardini who has returned to the club. We saw a hungry Genoa fit for every inch yesterday against Lazio and I expect the new coach arrival to keep motivation levels high.
  • Since taking charge (Davide Ballardini)  his side took 3 points off Spezia in a 2-1 win and a respectable 1-1 with Lazio who managed to generate just 0.59xG from open play
  • Importantly for Genoa they have a lot of good options in attack now. Mattia Destro has found form and is currently putting up 0.95 goal contributions per 90, The highly sought after Scamacca 0.74, Shomurodov 0.51, Goran Pandev 0.42 and Marko Pjaca 0.4
  • The long term numbers for this Genoa side won't look pretty, things were dismal under Maran and prior to him it was a bit of a managerial merry go round with Davide Nicola, Thiago Motta and Andreazzoli all having stints in the dugout.

Final word: I expect Genoa to score at least once here and take something from the game