- Sassuolo’s electric form dwindled in their last match which we called (they were massively overperforming their xG) and we’re expecting the same here
- Behind Atalanta, Milan might be the 2nd best team in Italy at the moment, more importantly though they seem to be enjoying their football.
- Milan will be the more motivated of the two presuming they do want Europa League football next season. They are entwined in a battle with Roma and Napoli for the European spots (Sassuolo technically in the mix too)
- Since the restart, Milan have generated on average 2.3xG per match while scoring 3.12 goals
- Sassuolo have allowed Top 6 teams to score 2.7 goals per game against them in their last 10
- Even if we filter this to their home games the average is quite high (2.2)
- Despite playing out a 0-0 earlier in the season, Milan had De Zerbi’s number. They were very much on top and even generated 2.64xG while failing to score.
- Since then however, the January arrivals have had a massive effect on the team. Zlatan, Rebic, and even Saelemaekers
- Milan’s team xG per 90 with these players is very high. With Rebic 2.11 goals per 90 and 1.86xG per 90. With Zlatan 2.3 goals per 90 and 1.83xG per 90. With Saelemaekers 2.83 goals per 90 and 2.35xG per 90
- I keep mentioning it but as we draw closer to the end of the season teams with bigger squads have a bigger advantage. Milan’s bench here will likely be a lot better with the likes of Paqueta, Rafael Leão, and Bonaventura (likely available to be called upon in the 2nd half)
Final word: De Zerbi has made it no secret he wants to qualify for Europe so expect them to go balls to the wall here again. Providing Milan can capitalise on holes left by Sassuolo this should be an easy 3 points.
Milan to win at 2.00 with Bet365- 2 units