Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.7 with Pinnacle (min 1.65) - 2 units

Sassuolo

  • Sassuolo who beat Napoli 2-0 back in November will be hoping for similar success here. That match was quite open, we saw a combined 30 shots and 3.66 xG
  • Considering Napoli's problems in defence again (more below) we can expect perhaps an even more open affair.
  • Outside of the "Big 7" (Inter, Milan, Roma, Juve, Atalanta, Napoli, and Lazio) Sassuolo are the best chance creators and goal scorers.
  • When hosting teams in the top half of the table (Napoli 7th) Sassuolo's last 10 games have averaged 3.8 goals a game
  • Most recently we saw the Over 2.5 hit against Lazio (2-1), Juventus (3-1), Atalanta 5-1, Samp (2-3), and Milan (2-1)
  • Apart from Boga (doubtful) their XI should be full strength.
  • Sassuolo main goal contributors are Caputo, Berardi, and Duricic are all in line to start this game

Napoli

  • Napoli are once again with their two best CB's after Koulibaly's red card at the weekend. This means Rrahmani and Maksimović are starting at CB again.
  • Across all competitions, Napoli concede their most chances and goals per 90 with Rrahmani on the pitch. From 714 mins this season they allow on average 1.65 goals against and 1.43xGA. Maksimović's numbers aren't too much better either.
  • Going forward however they should be able to pack a punch against this leaky Sassuolo side, both Mertens and Insigne are expected in the starting XI along with key creator Fabian Ruiz
  • As you might imagine, Napoli's xG and goal numbers are infinitely better with these three. Napoli's team xG averages out a 1.75 with these players on the pitch and a goal's per 90 rate of 1.86
  • On the road this season Napoli games have averaged out with 3.09 goals per 90 and 2.98 total expected goals

Final word: If both teams keep 11 men on the pitch this should sail home, I expect a similar game to the one we saw in November, Napoli should edge it but I'm happy to just side with goals for this game.