Under 2.5 Total Goals at 1.71 with Pinnacle ( min 1.65) - 1 unit

Saudi Arabia

  • KSA find themselves tied 2nd in Group B with 3 wins from 3 along with Australia
  • New coach HervĂ© Renard has seen his side concede just 5 goals and score 27 in their 11 WCQ games thus far (W9 D2 LO)
  • Last week they took on one of the best teams in Asia (Asia) and shut them out allowing just 0.96 total xGA with 7 attempts on goal (1-0 win).
  • Prior to that they ground out another 1-0 win over Oman generating 0.45xG and conceding 1.05, against Vietnam they had a lot of success scoring 3 times and generating 3.91xG with 20 attempts on goal
  • Vietnam did have a man sent off early in that game though and they gave away two penalties. Generally these WCQ games have seen KSA take a cautious approach.
  • Considering the amazing start they've had I would expect Renard to do the same here, points are all that matter and defeat must be avoided at all costs.
  • The Green Falcons will be without Salem Al-Dawsari (highest goal contributor in WCQ 2022) in attack which does weaken them slightly. Elsewhere they will be without DM Abdullah Otayf and RB Mohammed Al-Breik

China

  • China look even weaker in attack than in 2018 qualification despite naturalizing a bunch of Brazilians.
  • Against the worst defence left in AFC WC qualification (Vietnam) they ran out 3-2 winners but in my opinion looked quite poor. KSA won't be giving up such easy chances.
  • Against similarly ranked sides to KSA China have failed to generate anything in attack. Against Australia they got off 0 attempts on target (0.59 total xG) and against Japan even worse with 0.22xG (0 attempts on target)
  • The last round of CSL matches would have been in mid-august so expect the lack of competitive game play continue to effect the team. The Saudi Professional League hasn't had a break (Their whole squad plays domestically)
  • Since the 2019 Asian Cup, China have taken on a Top 60 nation (KSA 56th) 4 times (excluding friendlies) and have failed to score a single goal

Final word: Saudi have had an incredible start to their WC campaign and likely won't deviate from their normal game despite playing an inferior opponent. Expect another competent defensive display.