Over 2.5 Total Goals at 1.75 with Pinnacle (min 1.67) - 1 unit

Serbia

  • Serbia took on Qatar mid-week in a friendly as part of the Arab side's warm-up for the 2022 WC.
  • The game was entirely one-sided, ending 4-0 to Serbia with 2.26xG generated and 0.36 conceded.
  • Under Stojkovic, that was the first clean sheet they kept; in their three competitive games however they have conceded on average 1.66 goals per game with 1.24xGA. Considering two of these games have come against feeble attacks (Ireland and Azerbaijan) is worrying
  • In Euro qualification, these two met twice, and both games were high scoring with 9 goals and 7.04xG over 180 mins
  • Over the last calendar year, Serbia have played 6 competitive games with an average 11 shots against averaging 1.38xGA
  • Serbia scoring multiple goals here shouldn't really be a concern, they've netted in all their games under Stojkovic, and with Mitrovic/Tadic/Sergej likely returning to the XI they'll pose an even more significant threat.
  • At the back, they likely stick with the back three of Milenkovic, Mitrovic, and Pavlovic, not a watertight back three, in my opinion.
  • Expected XI: Rajkovic; Milenkovic, Mitrovic, Pavlovic; Lazovic, Sergej, Gudelj, Kostic, Tadic, Vlahovic, Mitrovic

Luxembourg

  • Luxembourg have found the net in all three of their WCQ games and have picked up 2 wins from 3. Considering their positive results against Serbia in the ECQ (Euro qualification) they shouldn't be intimidated by their opponents.
  • Over the last calendar year, Luxembourg have played 9 competitive games and averaged 1.32xG per 90; none of those games came against Europe's minnows either (San Marino/Liechtenstein/Gibraltar/Malta/Moldova)
  • Only in two of the 9 games did they fail to score, at home to Montenegro in 2020 (1.84xG generated with 22 attempts on goal) and in a 0-0 with Azerbaijan in 2020 (17 attempts and 1.77xG)
  • Only one of their games in the last year came against a side comparable to Serbia's strength (vs Portugal), a game they scored in but were well and truly beaten.
  • Portugal put up 2.81xG with 20 attempts on goal (all from open play)
  • In their last qualification campaign (ECQ) they took on Portugal, Ukraine and Serbia and although some results were positive, it's clear that they can't contain these higher tier sides. From their 6 games against these sides in ECQ they allowed 1.93xGA per 90.

Final word: I feel Luxembourg can add to the goal line in this game but will ultimately be overwhelmed by Serbia. As Serbia can carry this goal line over by themselves, I've decided to opt for the Over 2.5 rather than BTTS.