Sevilla +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.54 with Pinnacle - 2.5 units (min 1.5)

Sevilla

  • Sevilla are coming into this game with their best XI available. Expected XI: Bono, Navas, Kounde, Carlos, Acuna, Jordan, Fernando, Papu, Suso, En Nesryi, Ocampos
  • That XI as a whole didn't play a ton of International football during the break, Only Kounde (France U21) played 3 times.
  • Sevilla have only lost 3 of 14 games at the Sanchez Pizjuan, the only truly deserved losses however where the ones that came to Barcelona and Real Madrid.
  • In both of those losses they restricted their opponents quite well and I think It's fair to say Atletico offer a lot less than Real and Barca going forward
  • Even with the higher production in front of goal, Atletico rank as the 5th best chance creators in the league (Barca 1st, Real Madrid 3rd)
  • When these two last played, Atletico won 2-0 but as the the xG score shows, this was a dull game with only one big chance being created in the entire 90 mins (Sevilla 80' En-Nesryi)
  • Defensively, no team has conceded fewer goals than Sevilla have at home (last 20 home games)
  • When taking on top 6 opponents at home, Sevilla are unbeaten in 7 of their last 10

Atletico Madrid

  • Atletico Madrid's team news isn't as positive as Sevilla's, they're without Felix, Dembele, Carrasco, and Torreira. Gimenez was a doubt but it looks like he's going to start now
  • Expected XI: Oblak, Tripper, Savic, Gimenez, Hermoso, Lodi, Koke, Llorente, Saul, Suarez, Lemar
  • Suarez leads this team for goal contributions p90 but neither Felix nor Carrasco are far behind. Both have respectable numbers and should be missed
  • As mentioned previously, Atletico Madrid are overperforming at both ends. They are scoring 1.62 per 90 off just 1.4xG while at the back they are only conceding 0.69 goals per 90 from 1.01xGA
  • Going off Statsbomb xG difference per 90 which is a good indicator of team strength we can see Atletico ranking 5th behind Barca, Real Sociedad, Real Madrid and Villarreal
  • Atletico have not had a single definitive win on the road against a top 6 opponent this season. They lost 2-0 to Real Madrid, beat La Real 2-0 (xG0.85-0.29),  beat Villarreal 2-0 (xG 1.77-0.52)
  • The same was true last season as well. Looking at their last 10 road games against top 6 opponents we see only 4 wins and the two i've mentioned above were a little undeserved.

Final word: A draw won't be a terrible result for either side, don't expect either to give much away.