Valencia did win 'to nil' mid-week against the weakest attacking side in La Liga midweek. However in truth they were very average and probably should have conceded at least once.

Furthermore, they lost more players, Jaume Costa got sent off, Diakhaby also got injured and should be on the sideline with Gaya and Vallejo as well.

  • Valencia are expected to line up with a CB pairing of Paulista and Guillamon (495 LaLiga mins) with Wass on the right and Adria Guerrero (126 LaLiga mins) on the left.
  • Expected XI: Cillessen, Paulista, Guillamon, Wass, Guerrero, Torres, Kondogbia, Parejo, Guedes, Gomez, Gameiro
  • Valencia's price I believe is short here because they need a win to have any hope of Europa League football (presuming they want UEL football, many clubs won't be bothered next season)
  • On the road Valencia have conceded a stunning 2 goals per 90 while allowing 1.96xGA
  • Even their average shot count away from home is abysmal with 15.78 against and only 6.89 for
  • Since sacking Celedas and bringing back Voro (caretaker) things haven't improved. In fact Valencia may be worse.
  • Valencia have given up 2.3 goals per game in their last 10 matches away to teams in the top half of the table.
  • Valencia's last 5 matches in La Liga have all come against teams who rank in the bottom 8 for xG production which might be another reason for the generous pricing. (Athletic Club, Granada, Valladolid, Leganes, and Espanyol)
  • The last time they played a top rated attack was last month when they were dominated by Villarreal (2-0 loss, xG 2.62-0.05)
  • There is another reason to think Sevilla turn up here, and that's the financial windfall that accompanies a 3rd place finish. Although they would need a favour from Real Sociedad, it's still a possibility for Sevilla. For that reason I don't expect them to roll over
  • The bottom 6 clubs for xGA this season are Levante, Mallorca, Valencia, Alaves, Eibar and Betis. From Sevilla's
  • Sevilla have averaged 1.94xG against these teams when playing at the Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan
  • The team news coming out of the Sevilla camp is very positive too. Expected XI: Bounou, Kounde, Carlos, Gomez, Reguilion, Torres, Gudelj, Jordan, de Jong, Ocampos, Munir.

Final word:

The market seems to believe Sevilla have no motivation here and I just don't buy it. Valencia are a mess on and off the pitch right now and I think Sevilla can finish their season on a high here.

Sevilla Over 1.5 team goals at 1.87 with Pinnacle - 2 units (tipped on Telegram yesterday at 19.35