Shakhtar Over 1.5 team goals at 3.4 with Bet365 - 1.5 units
  • Shakhtar's results against Gladbach have really lowered their stock coming into this game but there are some reasons to be optimistic
  • Shakhtar generally speaking have a decent home record in European competitions, and during winter in sub zero temperatures it's even greater
  • Real Madrid's squad is still thin for this game (especially in defence) and travelling at least 6 hours going east isn't going to give these players enough time for recovery in my opinion
  • Shakhtar beat Real Madrid with host of first team players missing (3 goals and 1.62xG)
  • This team and will be confident of a repeat performance here, their fate is in their own hands, a win here will put them right back into contention
  • Real Madrid will be without Sergio Ramos in defence, their squad looks weak (Eder Militao, Nacho Fernandez, Raphael Varane, Marcelo, Ferland Mendy, Victor Chust.)
  • Kroos and Modric in particular have a lot of mins in their legs and will probably be expected to play 90 mins here again.
  • Real will likely line up with Lucas Vázquez and Nacho in their back 4, these two have a big impact on the amount of chances Real Madrid concede. With Vázquez 1.55xGA per 90 in all competitions, while with Nacho that number is 1.44
  • Real Madrid lined up with a similar XI to what we saw against Inter midweek, although they had no issues generating chances against Alaves they did look shaky in defence conceding 2.25xGA
  • The clean sheet against Inter (early red card) has actually been the only clean sheet Real Madrid have kept in their last 9 matches in all competitions
  • Overall this season we're seeing massively worse goals against and xGA numbers for Real Madrid. In all competitions they allowing 1.4 goals per game and 1.4xGA per game
  • Shakhtar do have some absentees but they're not nearly as affected as Real Madrid. The Miners will likely line up with a front 3 of Solomon, Moraes, and Tete (All three have decent goal contribution numbers this season)
  • As of today Shakhtar are only without Yevhen Konoplyanka(LW), Davit Khocholava (CB), Dentinho (AMC), Viktor Korniienko (LB) and Ismaily (LB). Fortunately both players in advanced positions are easily replaced in this squad so they should still carry a serious threat.
  • Shakhtar did turtle up in games after their bright start but here they have to play for the 3 points and take advantage of Real Madrid's situation.

Final word: A lot of recency bias is cooked into this Real Madrid price and I don't have them this short considering everything I've mentioned.