Sheff Utd

The Blades have overcome their doubters and regained their form beating Spurs, drawing with Burnley and beating Wolves. With  Europa League spots up for grabs we should expect them to be fully up for this match.

  • Sheff Utd have scored in 11 of their last 12 home matches in the Premier League. The one exception was their match against Man City. Man City have the lowest npxGA (non-penalty expected goals against) in the league, they give up the fewest chances from open play. In that match they generated 0.77xG and in my opinion were unlucky not to score.
  • The Blades have a reputation for being a team that can only defend but their chance creation numbers aren't that different to teams like Spurs/West Ham/Brighton/Arsenal. I do believe they can find the net at least once here
  • When it comes to home matches, Sheff Utd rank 8th best in the league for chance creation (xG) and 7th best for npxG (non-penalty xG)

Chelsea

  • With 46 goals conceded this season, Chelsea are the leakiest team in the top half of the table
  • Chelsea are missing some key players from midfield for this match, Kante, Gilmour, and Kovacic are all expected to miss out. A midfield of Barkley-Jorghino - Mount is expected to line up today.
  • Chelsea have given up on average 1.4 goals per 90 when playing teams in the top half of the table
  • Chelsea are expected to line-up with Christensen and Rudiger pairing at CB. Of all their defenders, Chelsea concede the most on average when Christensen is on the pitch (1.63 goals against per 90)
  • Chelsea have kept 1 clean sheet in their last 10 matches in all competitions away from Stamford Bridge.
  • Is Kepa Arrizabalaga really that bad? Post shot expected goals minus goals allowed is a good metric for testing GK's ability to stop good goal scoring chances. Chelsea rank dead  last in this category. I know Willy Caballero stepped in a for a few games but there's not much difference between the two. With either between the sticks Chelsea are liable to concede from low quality chances.
  • When these sides met at the Bridge earlier in the season they played out a 2-2 with the Blades creating 1.1xG
Sheff Utd Over 0.5 team goals at 1.67 with Gentingbet or 1.65 with Bet Victor - 2 units