• Slovenia will be without Josip Iličić who hasn’t been named in the squad. Iličić is one of many experienced Slovenians who haven’t been called.
  • Krhin of Nantes, Verbič of Dynamo Kyiv, and Tim Matavž of Al-Wahada all miss out
  • 12 of the 24 man squad are very inexperienced with 3 or fewer caps
  • Slovenia's last competitive action was in the Euro qualifiers, they recorded wins over Poland (good result) Israel (expected) and twice over Latvia (they rank lower than Andorra now). Only the Polish result stands out here and the performance wasn't even that great. Poland just didn't turn up.
  • In the last round of UEFA Nations League games, they were poor failing to win a single game against similar level opponents (Cyprus, Bulgaria, Norway)
  • Under current coach Matjaz Kek, they have failed to win 60% of their matches. What stands out to me is the appalling chance creation numbers against the better teams they've faced. Considering Verbič and Iličić are out as well I think they'll struggle to create big chances
  • Greece, are also under fairly new management in the form of the former Ajax man John van 't Schip
  • Things got off to a disastrous start with the Dutchman but the ship has since been steadied with three impressive back to back wins with very positive underlying metrics.
  • Against Finland, they scored twice and generated 3.91 xG while getting off 22 attempts on goal, vs Armenia they generated another healthy xG of 2.21 while getting off 18 attempts on goal (1-0) and against Bosnia, they generated 2.08xG while getting off 24 attempts on goal (2-1)
  • They were very confident at the back in those games too allowing just 0.57xGA per match.

Final word: Their win over Poland in 2019 at home is the only win Slovenia have recorded over a nation in the FIFA Top 60 in the last 4 years. I think Greece should be favoured all things considered.

Greece +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.63 with Betfair Exchange/Bet Victor  - 2 units