West Ham +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.73 with Pinnacle - 2 units

*posted to Telegram this afternoon (13.09)

  • Southampton will once again be without their Top goalscorer Danny Ings for this game, in their last match the Saints failed to register a goal and put up only 0.12 xG
  • Danny Ings is worth 0.91 goal contributions per 90 in this Southampton squad, almost double more than any other player (Che Adams in 2nd place)
  • Shane Long hasn't played much this season but from what we've seen he's been quiet with 0.02xG after 152 mins this season. The Irishman who is set to start here hasn't scored in his last 18 EPL appearances.
  • Southampton have only won 3 of their last ten encounters with teams in the middle third of the table (West Ham 10th)
  • The majority of Southampton's wins have come against lower tier opposition or games they didn't deserve to win.
  • Burnley and WBA at the start of the season were deserved but since then not so much.
  • They beat Everton 2-0, but the scoreline wasn't that reflective of the performance (xG 0.74-0.29 + 71 min red card for Everton)
  • The 4-3 win over Villa was undeserved (xG 2.45-1.00xG)
  • The 2-0 home win over Newcastle was deserved but currently, Newcastle are 5th worst for chances allowed from open play and 3rd worst for chance creation.
  • Southampton currently rank 6th worst in the league for chance creation; surprisingly they're only marginally better than bottom-placed Sheff Utd.
  • As we know, Southampton will thrive when they are given space in behind; I don't think this West Ham team will give that to them.

West Ham

  • Since the opening day of the season West Ham have only lost to Arsenal (deserved something) Liverpool (defended well for the majority) Man Utd (deserved something) and Chelsea (deservedly lost)
  • West Ham are a more respectable defensive side this season and currently rank mid-table for xGA with numbers comparable to Man Utd, Wolves, and Spurs
  • West Ham's current xGA per 90 is the lowest it's been for 5 years (I don't have data that goes back further) so David Moyes should be given some credit for this new approach
  • West Ham are unbeaten in 7 of their last 10 matches against teams in the middle-third (Southampton 9th) with 16 goals scored and 16 goals conceded
  • The only time Hasenhüttl and Moyes went h2h the Scot came out on top winning 3-1 last February (xG 2.67-1.00 in West Ham favour)

Final word: Southampton look too short here, West Ham can do enough to avoid defeat or potential steal a win.

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