Spain Over 1.5 team goals at 2.2 with William Hill, Sportingbet, Paddy/Betfair, Bwin (2.05 min) - 2 units *Posted to Telegram at 15.31 yesterday


  • Spain let 3 points slip from their grasp against Switzerland last time out. Sergio Ramos missed two penalties.
  • Excluding the penalties however, Spain were decent winning the npxG (non penalty xG) count 1.65-0.9 and getting off 18 attempts on goal
  • Taking into consideration Spain's last 3 competitive games that's 2 goals off 6.76xG, their fortune in front of goal should start to turn
  • Spain are currently the best chance creators in League A of the UEFA Nations League
  • Spain can win the group with a win over Germany, they are currently 1 point behind after the Switzerland result.
  • Pressure is mounting on Luis Enrique after their poor run of results so expect him to take this game very seriously and play for the win.
  • Spain have a lot more attacking options than they did when they played out the 1-1 with Germany earlier in the year
  • Canales, Adama Traore, Asensio, Oyarzabal, and Morata all available here, they weren't in the previous match
  • Fading Spain on home turf generally isn't a good idea, just looking at matches since the 2018 WC (they have been in transition) we see 9 wins from 10. The only loss coming to Gareth Southgate's England (3-2)
  • In 8 of those 10  games they also scored 2 or more. The exceptions were against Switzerland (1.92xG) and a friendly with Bosnia

Expected XI: Simon - Roberto, Ramos (c), P. Torres, Reguillon - F. Torres, Rodri, Merino - Olmo, Morata, Oyarzabal


  • Germany were excellent against Ukraine , but still showed plenty of vulnerability at the back against a weakened Ukraine
  • Ukraine scored and hit the woodwork multiple times
  • Jogi Löw cannot settle on a formation or a regular XI. Last match he had 4 CB's on the pitch (Rudiger, Ginter, Koch, and Süle)
  • For this game he will be without the suspended Antonio Rüdiger which should mean a fairly shaky back 3 of Ginter, Süle, and Koch
  • Of the teams in League A, Germany have the 4th worst defence in terms of chances allowed (xGA)
  • As we discussed last week, Germany don't have Kimmich available which makes them weaker everywhere but mostly in defensive transitions
  • Germany have played 4 road games in the UNL and conceded in all, their 2-1 win over a COVID hit Ukraine was their only win
  • In Euro qualification they had one serious test away from home, that came against the Netherlands, a game they won 3-2 but didn't deserve too (1.18-1.96xG in Netherlands favour)

Expected XI: Neuer (c) - Ginter, Süle, Koch, Max - Gündogan, Kroos, Goretzka - Gnabry, Sane - Werner