Spain -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.19 with Pinnacle - 2 units (min 2.05)

Spain

  • Spain came up against one of the most stubborn defences in International football in their opening game and stuttered in a 0-0. The Spaniards created 3 or 4 big chances in that game so we shouldn't be too hard on them. Here they have a far more favourable opponent.
  • This game will be played in Sevilla once again so no travel worries for Spain, Poland are arriving from St Petersburg.
  • Although it will be an evening kick-off, we can expect the heat and humidity to be a factor. Spain should deal with this better than the Poles.
  • Spain can run into trouble when forced to break down stubborn teams like Sweden, who sit deep in a low block. However, they face a Polish side that has to take some risk after losing to the weakest team in the group. More on them later
  • Spain have a remarkable record at home to teams outside the FIFA Top 20; looking at just competitive games on home soil, they've failed to win just one since March 2013. That came in a 1-1 draw with Greece. Spain allowed one attempt on their goal in that game, and it came from a penalty. npxG was 1.22-0.00 in Spain's favour
  • In qualification, only Belgium and Russia posted better xG (namely because they played San Marino)
  • In their UNL games, they took on superior opposition to Poland and generated 2.69xG per 90 with 2.17 goals.
  • Luis Enrique has everyone available except Busquets, so we could see the same XI that faced Sweden

Poland

  • Poland were unlucky to be beaten by Slovakia in the opening game and are now in a very precarious situation, knowing that they'll likely need to take something from the game to have any chance of going through
  • Let's examine Poland's recent matches against teams ranked in FIFA's Top 40
  • Slovakia, loss (0.67xGA), England, loss 2-1 (2.01xGA), Hungary draw 3-3 (1.08xGA), Netherlands loss 2-1 (2.67xGA), Italy 2-0 loss 1.73xGA)
  • Under Paulo Sousa (6 games), Poland have won just a single game, that came against Andorra (3-0)
  • Poland should line up similar to the 1st game except for holding midfielder Grzegorz Krychowiak who got sent off against Slovakia. Krychowiak has started every competitive game under Sousa.
  • Jakub Moder could step into midfield; he last played 90 mins in the 2-1 loss to England.

Final word: Poland have to deal with the travel from St Petersburg as well as the Andalusian summer heat. Expect Spain to dominate this