Spain -1 Asian Handicap at 1.78 with Unibet - 2 units
- Switzerland have been hit with plenty of key absentees for this game. Mbabu, Akjani Steffen, Zakaria, and Embolo are just some of the names excluded from the squad. Shaqiri was originally ruled out with C19 but he’s since tested negative and will be available here (unlikely to start)
- Manuel Akanji, in particular, will be a big miss, he’s almost always an automatic starter at the heart of their back 3. This should mean Schär, Elvedi and Rodriguez making up the back 3.
- Elvedi who would usually be an automatic starter at CM with Xhaka for these types of matches too. Expect Frankfurt’s Djibril Sow to deputize in his absence
- This is kind of a meaningless game for both but it’s rare Spain disappoints on home soil (7 straight wins since the loss to England)
- They’ve also managed these impressive performances while rotating their XI a lot
- For this match the expected line-up is something like this: De Gea; Navas, Ramos, Torres, Gaya; Merino, Busquets, Rodri; Fati, Moreno, Olmo
- Over the last calendar year, Spain have played 3 games on home soil (Ukraine, Romania, and Malta) From these games Spain have averaged 5.33 goals per 90 and 4.53xG per 90
- At the back they have allowed 0 goals and just 0.23xGA per 90
- If we filter just their home results in EC qualification we see 4.2 goals per 90 and 4.12xG per 90
- If we go back to their UNL campaign we see similar results at home with Spain averaging 4 goals (3-2 loss to England and 6-0 win over Croatia)
- Under Luis Enrique, Spain have won every competitive home game bar the 3-2 loss to England
- Over the last calendar year, the Swiss have played 3 road games (Ukraine, Gibraltar, and Denmark) from these match they only beat Gibraltar
- The last time Switzerland would have travelled to a team on Spain’s level was back in June 2019 when the took on Portugal. They lost that game 3-1
Final word: Expect Spain to pin the Swiss back for the majority of the match while creating a high number of chances.