Atalanta -1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.15 with Pinnacle - 2 units (Min 2.00)

Spezia

  • Spezia are currently sitting 13th in the league after some positive results but in my opinion they're close to being one of the worst teams in the league
  • The newcomers have the 3rd worst xGA total in the league, and they've conceded the 4th most goals
  • So far this season Spezia have faced 3 teams that we can put on Atalanta's level for attacking production (Juventus, Sassuolo, and Milan)
  • All three  beat Spezia comfortably. Sassuolo 4-1, Milan 3-0, and Juventus 4-1
  • Going forward is a problem for Spezia, although they have scored 11 this season it's worth noting that their xG is way below that number (6.33)
  • By looking at the underlying metrics we see that their win over Benevento was the only match this season where they truly did deserve to pick up points.
  • Spezia's team news isn't great either. They'll be without their top goalscorer Galabinov, starting RB Ferrer, CM Bartolomei, and winger Verde. A few other fringe players are also out

Atalanta

  • Atalanta have endured a tough start to the season but is it too soon to write them off? In opinion it absolutely is. They've been in these spots before and come out fine the other end
  • Let's get to team news first as things have been bad in recent weeks. Italian Media is expecting the following: Gollini (starting GK is back), Djimsiti, Romero, Toloi, Gosens (missed last 3 games), Freuler, de Roon (missed last 4 games) Gomez (played only 6 mins with NT ) Pašalić, and Lammers
  • Not seeing Zapata or Muriel leading the line might concern you but they were playing in altitude only a few days ago and won't be ready here. Lammers however has hit the ground running with 2 goals in 140 mins. I don't see a big concern, besides the two Colombia's will be on the bench if needed
  • Josip Iličić should be on the bench too, he's gotten a lot more mins under his belt at International level and will hopefully be returning to his best soon.
  • Even with their bad start, Atalanta are the highest scorers in the league and the 4th best chance creators
  • The narrative is that Atalanta can't defend and that's just not true, last season they ranked 1st in the league for xGA (chances against) and this season only 3 teams have been better at restricting the opposition (Juve, Udinese, and Napoli)
  • Lastly, how do Atalanta perform against teams in the bottom half of the table? Looking at their last 10 we can see an incredible 3.4 goals scored per game and 8 wins