Both teams to score: Yes at 1.67 with William Hill/10bet/1xBet - 2 units (min 1.6)

*posted to private Telegram at 14.09

  • Spezia won last time out in a bizarre match against Napoli, Napoli squandered a lot of chances in that game, they created a total xG of 4.01 and got off 25 attempts on target. A dubious penalty call and some poor defending meant Spezia scored two from their 3 shots on target
  • Currently Spezia have the 2nd worst xGA in the league, only Cagliari are worse. Their expected goals differential has them as the 3rd worst team in Italy too
  • The only game Spezia really had any success restricting chances/goals was in their 3-0 win against Benevento, in every other game this season they've given up at least 2 goals or an xGA of at least 1.55
  • Spezia have kept a total of 3 clean sheets in 15 Serie A games so we should expect Sampdoria to hit the net at least once.
  • Going forward Spezia should have some success , they press high and aggressively and often create good goal scoring opportunities form turnovers.
  • Spezia have only failed to score in one game in which they have kept 11 men on the pitch. That game was against Atalanta (0-0)
  • In all their matches against bottom half opponents they have scored (Genoa, Bologna, Crotone, Cagliari, Benevento, Parma, Fiorentina, and Udinese)
  • From those games they averaged 1.87 goals scored per match

Sampdoria

  • Sampdoria have had a difficult run recently taking on Inter, Roma, and Sassuolo but are still performing at the decent level. Let's explore how they've done against the lower tier competition this season
  • In December they beat Crotone 3-1 creating 2.1xG, against Torino they scored two again although their xG was lower at 1.38, against Bologna they were poor scoring just once and generating 1.53xG (man sent off early), against Cagliari it was a similar story, another man sent off early contributed to a poor result (2-0), against Fiorentina they scored twice generating 2.32xG, against Benevento they scored two while generating 1.36xG
  • Considering this and Spezia's poor defensive numbers we can feel quietly confident of Sampdoria registering at least one goal
  • At the back it hasn't been pretty for Ranieri's men this season, They've given up 1.63 goals a game and are allowing an even higher average xGA of 1.95
  • Sampdoria have kept just a single clean sheet in their last 21 Serie A games, that clean sheet came against a Lazio side without Immobile
  • No team during the same period has a worse clean sheet record than Sampdoria

Team news: Spezia's team news is better than last week and Sampdoria have no automatic starters missing.

Expected Spezia XI: Provedel, Ferrer, Terzi, Chabot, Marchizza, Estevez, Agoume, Pobega, Gyasi, N'Zola, Farias

Expected Samp XI: Audero, Bereszynski, Yoshida, Colley, Augello, Candreva, Ekdal, Thorsby, Jankto, Quagliarella, Keita

Final word: Providing we don't see any early red cards here this should cash with ease, both teams struggle to prevent chances while creating their fair share.

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