Fulham +1 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 with William Hill - 2 units (min 1.87)

*posted to members this morning at 9.04

Fulham

  • Fulham continued their impressive run of defensive performances with a 0-0 against Southampton last time out. The Cottagers allowed just 0.07 xGA in that game and one shot on target that came from 25 yards out.
  • Since losing 3-0 to Villa at the end of September, Fulham have only lost by a 2 goal margin once and that came against Man City
  • Fulham have looked a lot more solid since bringing in Joachim Andersen from Lyon. With the Dane playing at CB Fulham are only allowing 0.92 goals per 90 mins
  • After Ruben Loftus-Cheek (0.75 goals against per 90) no other player has a more positive impact on their goals against p90 number
  • It's clear Fulham are in a type of survival mode already and we can see that in their recent games, with this being an away game against a Top 6 side I expect more of the same.
  • Against Liverpool they restricted the Champions to just 0.9xG from open play, they restricted Brighton to 0.97xG, and then they restricted Newcastle to 0.42xG from open play (Newcastle scored a penalty)
  • It seems Scott Parker is favouring the 5-4-1 or a 3-4-2-1 lately. When they've been in this shape we've only seen low scoring affairs involving Fulham
  • So far this season they have played 389 mins in this shape and have averaged 0.6 goals for p90 and 0.6 goals against per 90. The average xG for and against is very low too so assuming they line up similarly to recent games we should expect chances to come at a premium

Spurs

  • Spurs have put up back to back performances that leave a lot to be desired. They failed to hit the net against Leicester and generated a 5 shots with just 0.43xG against Wolves
  • With no wins in 4, Spurs have now dropped to 7th in the table after sitting top only a few weeks ago.
  • This season Spurs are over performing in attack and defence. If we look at their xG differential we can see a very mediocre +0.23 xGD per 90 mins (ranked 8th best in league)
  • Looking at just their games in December we can see only Arsenal struggled to create decent chances, against Palace, Liverpool, Leicester, and Wolves they gave up a high amount of chances

Final word: Fulham should line up here as they have done recently with 5 at the back. Expect Spurs to have trouble finding space and creating good chances.

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