Nice +0.5 at 1.66 with Pinnacle - 2 units
Nice Over 1 goal @ 2.03 with Pinnacle - 2 units

St Etienne

  • St Etienne have several starters either suspended or injured for this game. Let’s run through who’s missing.
  • LB Maçon has done his knee ligaments, he’s started every league game this season, Debuchy starting RB and 3rd most used outfield player last season, Boudebouz attacking midfielder and creative outlet (starts AMF most games), Khaziri, perhaps an even better creative outlet than Boudebouz, 2nd highest goals + assists per 90 last season), Kolodziejczak (starting CB who has started 6 games this season) Neyou (CM who started 5 times this season)
  • Khaziri missing out is a significant loss, they achieved their best points per match ratio with him on the pitch last season (players with +1000 mins), the same is true for their 17/18 season (players with 2000+ mins)
  • With the defensive problems they have, we should see quite a young and inexperienced backline, Restos will get his first start, 19y/o Moueffek his 3rd ever Ligue 1 start, and Sissoko his 2nd ever Ligue 1 start
  • We also can’t forget the bizarre situation with Ruffier (starting GK and capped for the NT) who has been told he won’t play a single minute this season
  • On paper, things don’t look too bad for St Etienne but their underlying xG is atrocious with the 3rd worst xG total in the league and the 7th worst xGA
  • When looking at their form against similarly ranked teams things don't look great for the hosts. They’ve not won a single match in the last 10 times of asking when facing a team in the middle third of the table (Nice 8th this season and 5th last season) When facing Top half teams they’ve won just two of their last 10 while giving up 1.9 goals per game

Nice

  • Nice who are now being bankrolled Britain’s richest man Jim Ratcliffe (INEOS) have further strengthened their squad this window with the additions of Reine-Adelaide, Schneiderlin, Rony Lopes. Kamara, Gouri, Lotomba, and Bambu. Not a lot of household names there but it’s clear nice are putting together an extremely talented bunch of young players for the future
  • So far this season Nice’s goalscoring nor xG has not been extraordinary but they have had some tough opposition like PSG, Lens, Montpellier, and Bordeaux (all top half ranked defences this season)
  • In their other two matches against bottom-half ranked defences (Strasbourg and Nantes they won and scored twice
  • Nice are unbeaten in their last 7 against teams in the middle third of the table (St Etienne 17th last season and currently sitting 7th this season)
  • They are also unbeaten in 7 in their last 10 against bottom-half teams
  • Nice do have a serious injury concern with Dolberg
    (CF) who probably won't feature here, he's their main xG+xA and G+A contributor this season but Nice should have a reliable front three with Rony Lopes, Gouri, and Maolida set to start.

Final word: St Etienne are a lot worse than their league position suggests and I believe their massive absentee list will just compound their problems here