Giovanni De Biasi is the new coach of Azerbaijan this will be his first game in charge. On the International stage he's managed once before (with Albania) and even took them to the Euro's. De Biasi is a defence first kind of coach so expect a cautious approach from the hosts
Azerbaijan's attacking output in 2019 was terrible. They managed 0.8 goals per 90 and 0.82xG per 90. If we filter out friendlies this drops even further to 0.63 goals per 90 and 0.72xG per 90
In the UNL last time out they beat the Faroe Islands x2 but failed to pick up wins against Kosovo or Malta
How do these squads match up? Well Luxembourg have come a long way in recent recent years and actually have the more valuable team (€16.15m) thanks to some players who play at a reasonably high level. 95% of the Azerbaijan squad plays their football in Azerbaijan (Mostly Qarabag, Neftci, and Sabah)
The Azerbaijan domestic league is one game in so they may have a small edge in terms of match sharpness but I wouldn't put too much weight into that.
Competitively Azerbaijan have only beaten the Faroe Islands and San Marino at home since 2016
Luxembourg took on three teams outside the FIFA Top 100 in 2019 and went unbeaten. They also beat Serbia and put in respectable performances against the high flying Ukraine.
In the last UNL campaign they were unbeaten in 4 of 6 losing only to Belarus. Both games with Belarus were very close and very easily could have been draws
They allowed just 0.67 goals per 90 in that campaign while scoring 1.83 goals per 90
Luxembourg +0.5 Asian Handicap at 1.67 with Pinnacle - 2 units
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